Crypto market trend reversal, alts opportunity analysis

1. The macro environment and the crypto market are gradually improving

1. Tariff policy easing

Trump publicly acknowledged that the current tariffs on Chinese imports are too high and that the tax rates are expected to be significantly reduced. This marks a shift in his stance on the iconic tariff policy.

2. Expectations of interest rate easing

Current interest rate futures imply a rate cut starting in June, with a total of 3 cuts within the year. This could inject new liquidity into the market.

3. Encryption-friendly policies are gradually being implemented.

The United States is promoting the establishment of a "strategic Bitcoin reserve" and a "U.S. digital asset reserve." Several states are advancing Bitcoin state reserve bills. Two stablecoin bills, the "GENIUS Act" and the "STABLE Act," are being pushed forward. The new SEC Chair, Paul Atkins, is seen as a crypto-friendly regulator.

4. BTC shifts from bearish to bullish

Since mid-March, BTC has outperformed the US stock market overall. Recently, BTC's RSI and MACD have shown a bottom divergence, combined with extreme fear in sentiment indicators, forming a bottom. Currently, the MACD indicator has turned bullish.

2. ETH or leading alts may show a trend reversal

1. On-chain data analysis

The number of profitable ETH addresses has dropped to a lower position during the bear market, and the MVRV indicator has entered an oversold state. The cost basis distribution shows a significant accumulation area of long-term holders around the $1850 mark.

2. Contract Data Analysis

The total position of ETH contracts is 21.821 billion USD, with OI/MC at around 10%, indicating high liquidity. Recently, the contract position and price have shown a positive correlation. The ETH contract holdings on exchanges are generally higher than their wallet balances.

3. Technical Analysis

Multiple technical indicators for ETH show bottoming signals:

• The K-line pattern shows a Wyckoff spring and a bullish engulfing.
• Price breaks through the 20-day EMA
• MACD and momentum indicators show divergence
• RSI and MFI enter the oversold range

3. Alts Opportunity Mining

1. NEIROETH (Meme track )

• Market cap of approximately $61 million, with a 24-hour contract trading volume reaching $843 million.
• OI/MC exceeds 13.8 times, the contract market is active
• The overall network long-to-short ratio is 1.05, with large holders holding more long positions.
• Recently, mainly short positions have been opened, and the bullish trend is obvious.

2. ZEREBRO ( AI track )

• Circulating market cap of $76.85 million, with a relatively dispersed chip distribution.
• Contract positions increased by 300% in 24 hours, and trading volume increased by 782%.
• The contract CVD continues to rise, and the funding rate is positive.
• The large holder's long-short ratio is 1.4, indicating an overall bullish trend.

4. Summary

Against the backdrop of an improving macro environment, BTC has broken through a key position. Various indicators for ETH suggest a potential trend reversal. Some alts like NEIROETH and ZEREBRO have shown significant movements, which are worth paying attention to. Overall, the crypto market is expected to see more upward opportunities.