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加密貨幣的“ChatGPT時刻”:對銀行的影響有多大?
Author: thedefireport
Compiled by: Vernacular Blockchain
Stablecoins — long considered by cryptocurrency insiders as the backbone of on-chain finance — are on the verge of receiving legal recognition from U.S. regulators.
As Tom Lee put it, this is cryptocurrency’s “ChatGPT moment” — the first crypto product with mainstream utility and institutional clarity.
Summary of New Legislation
The Guidance and Establishment of a United States Stablecoin National Innovation Act (GENIUS Act) may be the most influential legislation in the history of cryptocurrency.
The bipartisan bill establishes the first federal framework for payment stablecoins, aiming to instill confidence, clarity, and institutional legitimacy into the more than $260 billion stablecoin market.
Key Takeaways:
By combining the reliability of the U.S. dollar with modern public blockchain networks, the bill lays the foundation for widespread adoption of stablecoins in business and finance while being subject to strict oversight by U.S. regulators.
Impact on USDC and USDT
Is the GENIUS Act a good thing for Circle?
We think this is not the case. Although the bill requires stablecoins to be backed by US dollar assets 1:1 (cash, money market funds, treasury bonds), and Tether (USDT)'s current asset composition (80-85% meets the requirements, and the rest includes gold, Bitcoin and corporate debt) does not meet the bill's standards, this is not fatal to Tether.
Why is Tether not affected?
According to the bill, if an offshore issuer (such as Tether) wants to enter the US market, the Treasury Department can conduct a compliance comparison test. As long as its rules are consistent with US standards, Tether can continue to operate in the US market. Therefore, Tether has multiple ways to achieve compliance, and we expect them to do so.
USDC vs USDT: Which will dominate the US market?
Perhaps the more important question is: Which fintech company will be the first to integrate stablecoins into mainstream products? Circle? Tether? Stripe? Paypal?
The answer is not yet clear, and we don’t know what the product will look like. But we expect there will be a large number of stablecoin issuers, and competition will drive down issuance fees. The ultimate winner may win through services around stablecoins, such as:
Salary Payment: Smart contracts + stablecoins can be used for salary/contractor payments, automatically triggering milestones or delayed payments, and simplifying management and accounting processes.
Faster payments: Increase the velocity of money and create a yield-generating currency.
Emerging Markets
Emerging markets are not a “race to the bottom.” These markets are blue ocean markets full of potential, and Tether is a dominant player in them.
In emerging markets, stablecoin holders do not need to earn a yield because holding the stablecoin itself is valuable. In Argentina, for example, stablecoins protect holders from double-digit or even triple-digit inflation.
[Personal observation: I spent 5 weeks in Buenos Aires last year and witnessed the popularity of stablecoins. Many locals received Argentine pesos and exchanged them for USDT as a "value storage" tool through crypto trading platforms (such as BN). 】
We believe that Tether will continue to dominate emerging markets while developing a closer relationship with the U.S. government (see subsequent analysis for details).
Impact on FinTech Companies
We expect that every major fintech company will launch its own stablecoin in the next few years. Paypal has taken the lead, and Stripe may be next.
Block (Square/Cash App), Robinhood, SoFi/Chime, and international fintech companies (such as Revolut, Wise, MercadoPago) are all potential candidates.
reason?
These companies have large user bases, global infrastructure, and strong balance sheets and banking partners.
Stablecoins provide a global 24/7 payment channel, reducing costs for merchants and e-commerce customers while creating new sources of revenue (under the GENIUS Act, fintech companies can retain the proceeds).
Impact on Bank of America
Banks are in a dilemma. We believe that the banks of the future will be fintech companies built on cryptocurrency rails, very different from the banks of today.
But just as the post office survived the spread of email, banks will not disappear. Innovative banks and fintech companies will thrive, and banks that move slowly will become the post office in five years.
Why are Bank of America in trouble?
Banks are not going away, but the GENIUS Act accelerates the crisis for those who move slowly.
Impact on Visa/MasterCard
Reminder: Stablecoins can be settled almost instantly, support global peer-to-peer transactions, and have low costs.
Traditional card payment fees are as high as 200-300 basis points (including issuance/acquiring fees, exchange rate differences and transaction fees), and settlement takes 2-3 days.
Stablecoins are clearly a superior product and will be used for:
Merchant payments, e-commerce, remittances, subscriptions, cross-border payments, payroll, etc.
This would bypass the card payment track entirely, posing a major threat to the $200 billion per year card payment fee industry.
reason?
Anyone can build services on a public blockchain, and Visa/Mastercard has no control over the infrastructure.
Fintech companies, wallets and stablecoin issuers can directly access global money flow rails without the need for card network membership.
Visa/MasterCard's countermeasures:
what does that mean?
Stablecoins are forcing Visa/Mastercard to transform from a “value transfer” network to a “trust and tools” provider. Savings on card payment fees will benefit merchants, stablecoin issuers, consumers, and fintech companies that integrate new services.
Impact on the dollar’s dominance
Stablecoins are extremely positive for the United States and the U.S. dollar, and can be called a “godsend for cryptocurrency.”
reason?
Bold prediction: Tether could become one of the most important innovations in the history of the dollar’s growth.
We believe that the current government wants to support the development of Tether at home and abroad. Tether is provided with reserve custody by Cantor Fitzgerald and has 450 million global users (most of which are outside the United States).
When international users purchase USDT as a store of value, Tether will purchase U.S. debt, thereby diversifying the holders of U.S. debt from sovereign states to individuals around the world. This is undoubtedly what the U.S. government is happy to see.
Stablecoins not only expand the global network effect of the US dollar, but also diversify the holding base of US debt.
Scott Bessent is well aware of this, and has therefore become an active promoter of stablecoins and the GENIUS Act.
All stablecoin issuers are critical to the dollar, but offshore issuers (like Tether) are particularly critical - they bring new buyers of U.S. debt, expand the dollar’s network effect, and provide financial services to the unbanked.
We believe that the relationship between Tether and the U.S. government will become increasingly close and deserves close attention.
How to invest in stablecoins
Stablecoins are mainly distributed on Ethereum (including L2, which accounts for 55%). Tom Lee called Ethereum "the home of stablecoins" on CNBC.
I personally prefer USDC on Solana because of its better user experience, but currently only 4.2% of stablecoins are on Solana.
Investment advice:
Data: Glassnode
In summary, stablecoin supply, on-chain transaction speed, price, and volatility are all on the rise.
Fasten your seatbelts!
一些人持有大量的BTC,并将它们全部兑换成BSV,因为他们认为Craig Wright是中本聪。 #ETH突破3600# #特朗普施压鲍威尔# #山寨季何时到来?#
一些人持有大量的BTC,并将它们全部兑换成BSV,因为他们认为Craig Wright是中本聪。 #ETH突破3600# #特朗普施压鲍威尔# #山寨季何时到来?#