**I. Key Data Overview**

1. **Current Price**: 3,198.60 USDT (Mark Price 3,198.95), 24H Change **+0.83%**.
2. **24H Fluctuation Range**: 3,019.40 (lowest) ~ 3,238.15 (highest), with a fluctuation of approximately **7%**, indicating high market volatility.
3. **Trading Volume and Open Interest**：
- 24H Trading volume: 1.0815 million ETH (3.461 billion USDT), **high activity**.
- Position: 53.56 billion USDT, showing intense competition between long and short sides.
4. **MACD Indicator**：
- MACD value: 0.79 (positive histogram), DIF (16.24) > DEA (15.45), **short-term bulls dominate**, but momentum is weak.
### **2. Future Trend Analysis**
#### **1. Short-term (15 minutes-4 hours)**
- **Technical Signal**:
- The current price (3,198) is slightly higher than **15-minute MA15 (3,181.66)**, with short-term support in place.
- The MACD histogram shrinks, and if the price cannot stay above 3,200, it may test the support zone of 3,150-3,180.
- **Key Resistance and Support**:
- **Resistance Level**: 3,238 (24H high), 3,300 (psychological barrier).
- **Support levels**: 3,150 (near MA15), 3,019 (24H low).
#### **2. Mid-term (Daily Level)**
- **Trend Judgment**：
- Currently in the **consolidation and recovery phase**, need to break through 3,238 to open up the upside space to 3,500.
- If it falls below 3,000, it may trigger long liquidation and test the 2,800-2,900 area.
- **Volume Verification**:
- The position and trading volume are synchronized and enlarged. Pay attention to the divergence signal between price and volume.
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### **Three, Operation Suggestions**
#### **1. Short-term Trading (15 Minutes-4 Hours)**
- **Long strategy**:
- If the price stabilizes at 3,200, try a small position long, with a target of 3,238→3,300, and a stop loss at 3,180.
- After breaking through **3,238**, if the pullback does not break, you can add to your position, and the target is expanded to **3,350**.
- **Bearish Strategy**:
- Breaking below **3,150** short, target **3,050→3,019**, stop loss **3,180**.
#### **2. Medium-term Position (Daily Chart)**
- **Position holder**:
- If it does not fall below 3,000, continue to hold, raise the stop loss to 3,000, and target 3,500.
- **Empty Position Holder**：
- Callback to **3,050-3,100** for phased position building, leverage ≤3 times, total position ≤20%.
#### **3. Risk Reminder**
- **Macro Events**: This week's U.S. CPI data and Fed policy remarks may cause significant volatility, so it is necessary to avoid opening positions around the data release.
- **Leverage Risk**: The current marked price (3,198.95) is close to the spot price, and high leverage positions need to guard against liquidation risks.
### **4. Summary**
- **Bullish condition**: Stabilizing above 3,200 + Continuously enlarging MACD histogram.
- **Bearish Risk**: Falling below 3,000 + shrinking trading volume.
- **Key Strategy**: **Buy low, sell high**, strictly stop loss, avoid chasing gains and killing drops.