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Two events last night saved the market: First, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States last week came in lower than expected, falling to the lowest level in a month. It looks like bad news because "good news is bad news," but continuing jobless claims rose to their highest level in more than three years, rising 46,000 to 1.91 million. The unemployed find it difficult to find a new job and stay longer on the list to receive unemployment benefits. The data supports traders to raise bets on the Fed to cut interest rates. Traders are currently pricing in a 38-point rate cut next year, meaning they see a roughly 50% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points for the second time. Second, strong demand for 7-year Treasury tenders pushed Treasuries to reverse their decline, causing the 10-year Treasury yield to fall below the 4.60% level. If these two events do not happen, the extreme movement of the dollar and US Treasury yields will further ferment, which will really trigger a global dump. However, the danger has not completely dissipated, because yesterday's events were not decisive and only hindered the pace of the dollar and US Treasury yields, not reversed. The U.S. dollar, U.S. Treasury yields, and U.S. equities are still the breakthrough points, and all three markets, which cannot be pumped at the same time, are now at high levels. Now it's up to us to see which one falls first. In the short term, it can be difficult to find direction. But if you take a long-term view, then everything suddenly becomes clear.

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GateUser-370a1ceevip
· 2024-12-27 07:11
On December 24, just as most of them were breaking through, the market will never lack trading opportunities. For prudent investment, opposition, style, and norms.
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