Many people simply believe that a rate cut by the Fed means the crypto assets market will welcome a bull run. However, this view is overly simplistic, and the reality is much more complex.

Let's review the past few bull runs of Crypto Assets:

In 2017, when Bitcoin reached its peak of $19,800, the Fed was in a rate hike cycle, with interest rates between 1.25% and 1.50%.
In November 2021, Bitcoin reached a new high of $69,000, while interest rates had been close to zero for a long time, with rate cuts having started back in March 2020.
In 2023, Bitcoin rebounded to around $73,000, which occurred during the interest rate hike cycle.
In 2024, Bitcoin rose from $74,000 to $123,000, during which interest rates remained stable.

From these cases, we can draw the following conclusions:
- Interest rate cut expectations may more easily trigger a market rally.
- Lowering interest rates does not necessarily lead to a market increase.
- A market upswing may not happen immediately.
- Whether interest rates are high or low, as long as they remain stable, the market is easier to rise.

So, what are the real factors driving the Crypto Assets bull run?

First of all, from the perspective of the Crypto Assets market, the core driving force of the bull run is the explosive growth of applications. For example, the rise of Ethereum in 2017, the emergence of NFTs and GameFi in 2021, as well as the entry of institutional investors and the expectations for ETFs.

Secondly, from a macroeconomic perspective, interest rate cuts are usually the result of deteriorating economic conditions. The purpose of lowering interest rates is to reduce the cost of debt, but this does not directly translate into Crypto Assets investment. On the contrary, due to the decline in traditional investment returns, some existing funds may shift towards more conservative investment strategies.

Therefore, the bull run of Crypto Assets often occurs prior to the arrival of interest rate cuts, or during the stable phase after the cuts. This is essentially the market waiting for the fulfillment of expectations.

Overall, the trends in the Crypto Assets market are the result of multiple factors working together and cannot be simply equated with fluctuations in interest rates. Investors need to comprehensively consider various factors such as technological innovation, market sentiment, and regulatory environment in order to more accurately grasp market movements.