Macroeconomic and on-chain data linkage shows signs of short-term pullback in the market.

Macroeconomic Review

Policy Context Analysis

1. Inflation Control Path

• Promote peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, release Russian energy resources to lower global energy prices.
• The situation in the Middle East may trigger new conflicts, temporarily pushing up oil prices, but can be controlled through diplomatic means.
• Increasing import tariffs may lead to a mild economic recession in the short term, but it helps to lower inflation.
• Adopt a tariff pressure strategy against China, engage in negotiations or implement economic blockade.

2. Interest Rate Control Path

• Pressure the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and expand the balance sheet to stimulate global liquidity.
• Promote legislation related to digital currencies, accelerate their development, and weaken the Federal Reserve's monetary control.

3. Economic Stimulus Path

• Permanent tax reduction policy to increase disposable income for businesses and individuals.
• Implement differentiated tariffs on the manufacturing industry to protect domestic industries.
• Lock in large-scale investments through international access.
• Expand oil and natural gas extraction to increase energy export revenue.
• Explore territorial expansion and expand the economic landscape.

4. Political Familization Path

• Use cryptocurrency policies to accumulate family wealth.
• Strengthen the loyal team to ensure policy continuity.

Strategy Summary

Focusing on economic stimulus, reducing inflation through energy policies and tariff adjustments, intervening in interest rate policies and promoting the development of digital currencies, while attracting investment and developing energy to stimulate growth. The short-term strategy is relatively aggressive, and the long-term effects depend on diplomacy and policy implementation.

Interest Rate Expectations

The market expects a 25 basis point rate cut on September 17, 2025, with a total of 2 rate cuts for the year, bringing the rate down to 4.00%, and a neutral rate adjustment to 3.50%. The current focus is on whether to start the rate-cutting cycle earlier. The long-term effects of tariff policies are beginning to show, bringing signs of economic slowdown. At the same time, the Federal Reserve has recently continued to reduce its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, tightening liquidity, which has led to adjustments in global liquidity indicators.

Important Events and Data Next Week

Mainly focus on the speeches and policy statements of central bank officials, as well as the release of various economic data, including PMI index, employment reports, inflation data, etc. This information will have a significant impact on market trends.

On-chain Data Analysis

1. Short-term Market Influencing Factors

1.1 Stablecoin Capital Flow

This week, the market trading volume has significantly decreased, down 76.4% compared to the previous period. The daily average issuance of stablecoins is only 0.78 billion, indicating a low liquidity state. This situation typically occurs when the market lacks a clear direction, trading volume shrinks, large holders are in a wait-and-see mode, or there is low willingness for on-chain capital entry. If the low activity continues next week, it can be confirmed that the market has entered a cooling period.

1.2 ETF Fund Flow

This week's ETF inflow decreased from 2.8 billion in the previous week to 670 million, a slowdown of 76%. This level is consistent with the periodic low point of ETF enthusiasm, indicating that the current round of ETF market has temporarily come to an end. After the reduction in ETF inflows, cryptocurrency prices have adjusted accordingly, showing that the current prices are highly dependent on ETF capital for support, lacking natural buying support from the market.

1.3 Off-exchange Rate

In late May, the OTC premium of USDT and USDC remained around 100.0%, with minimal fluctuations, reflecting a clear wait-and-see sentiment among investors and a slowdown in liquidity. Overall, the OTC stablecoin premium has consistently been at a "zero premium" or "discount edge," indicating insufficient buying interest in the OTC market and a lack of new fiat currency entry momentum.

1.4 Related Stock Performance

A certain listed company's stock price failed to reach the previous high, even though the company increased its cryptocurrency holdings. However, the stock market's enthusiasm for chasing the price is not as strong as before. The company's stock price has a premium relative to cryptocurrency prices, and investors need to pay attention to the timing of the end of this investment cycle.

1.5 Exchange Balance

The proportion of Bitcoin exchange balances continues to decline to a nearly one-year low of 15.046%, with significant easing of on-chain selling pressure. Meanwhile, the proportion of Ethereum exchange balances has increased from 13.52% to 15.83%, indicating some selling activity.

2. Mid-term Market Influencing Factors

2.1 Distribution of Holding Addresses

The number of addresses holding 1,000 to 10,000 tokens showed a significant decline on the 26th and 27th of this week, indicating short-term bearish signs. However, this portion was mainly absorbed by addresses holding 100 to 1,000 tokens, hence there is a short-term bearish outlook. In the medium to long term, the market structure is changing, and the distribution of chips is relatively even, with no significant signals observed.

Comprehensive analysis of various data suggests that the overall market may continue to pull back next week, especially after Ethereum rises again, making this judgment more certain.