The market welcomes the crucial "super 72 hours", with the Ethereum 4000-4100 USD range becoming the focus.

1. Market Observation

Recently, trade representatives from China and the United States held constructive talks in Stockholm, Sweden. Both sides agreed to extend the suspension of certain tariffs for 90 days, bringing some relief to the market. However, the global market still faces challenges and is closely watching the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Although it is widely expected that the Federal Open Market Committee will keep interest rates unchanged this week, the timing of the first rate cut has become the focus. Wall Street has split into two camps on this issue: one side predicts that the rate cut cycle will begin in September, while the other believes it may be delayed until December or later.

In this context, strategists warn that global central bank easing, financial regulation relaxation, and policy shifts are collectively giving rise to a "larger bubble" driven by "greater retail participation, increased liquidity, and more severe volatility." With the arrival of significant events such as the U.S. second quarter GDP data, the Federal Reserve's decision, tech giants' earnings reports, and the July non-farm payroll report, global markets are entering a critical "super 72 hours," the outcome of which will set the tone for the market direction for the remainder of the year.

The Ethereum market is undergoing a structural transformation driven by institutional capital. Analysts have pointed out that since July, Ethereum has risen by more than 50%. This round of growth is mainly driven by favorable macro policies, micro fund inflows, and a shift in investor sentiment. The U.S. Congress's active promotion of cryptocurrency legislation has injected confidence into the market, while the massive inflow of funds into Ethereum's spot ETF is the most direct catalyst. This indicates that the asset attributes of Ethereum are transitioning from "fuel for the world computer" to "yield-bearing reserve assets." As Ethereum moves to PoS, its staking feature that generates on-chain yields has attracted institutional funds seeking real returns.

The price of Bitcoin has been consolidating recently in the range of $117,000 to $120,000, and analysts' opinions are divided. Some traders believe that the market may first dip to the $108,000 area to clear liquidity before bouncing back. Others have pointed out that if the price of Bitcoin successfully recovers $120,000, the expectation of a dip will be negated, and the market may directly attempt to surge towards $125,000.

Regarding Ethereum, as the price returned to $3800, analysts generally displayed strong bullish sentiment, with its futures open interest (OI) reaching a historic high of $5.8 billion. Some analysts believe that the current data serves as a confirmation signal, with the continuous inflow of leveraged funds injecting momentum for a "vertical rise." From the perspective of on-chain activities, the number of active addresses and transaction volume on the Ethereum network has significantly increased, making it only a matter of time before a new historical high is reached. In terms of specific key price levels, the range of $4000 to $4100 is considered the core focus for further upward movement, and successfully breaking through this range is crucial for initiating the next phase of the upward trend.

It is worth noting that today marks the tenth anniversary of Ethereum's birth, with its price increasing from $0.3 to $3800, rising to the 28th position among global assets. The Layer2 network Linea within the ecosystem has also announced its token economics, planning to airdrop 10% of the tokens to early community users. In Asia, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced that it will open the first batch of stablecoin issuer license applications starting August 1 and requires real-name verification (KYC) for all compliant stablecoin holders.

2. Key Data (as of July 30, 12:00 HKT)

• Bitcoin: $117,951 (Year-to-Date +26.06%), Daily Spot Trading Volume $40.132 billion
• Ethereum: $3,803.76 (Year-to-date +14.12%), daily spot trading volume is $33.228 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 74 (Greed)
• Average GAS: BTC: 1 sat/vB, ETH: 1.38 Gwei
• Market share: BTC 60.7%, Ether 11.9%
• 24-hour BTC Long/Short Ratio: 48.65%/51.35%
• Sector Changes: AI down 3.89%; RWA down 3.67%
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 128,069 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $301 million, including $35.98 million in BTC liquidations, $76.24 million in Ether liquidations, and $12.78 million in XRP liquidations.
• BTC Medium to Long-term Trend Channel: Upper Channel Line (118878.55 USD), Lower Channel Line (116524.52 USD)
• ETH Medium to Long-term Trend Channel: Upper boundary line (3645.91 USD), lower boundary line (3573.71 USD)

3. ETF Flows (as of July 29)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$79.9781 million, continuous net inflow for 4 days
• Ethereum ETF: +219 million USD, continuous net inflow for 18 days

4. Today's Outlook

• A certain trading platform will launch the A2Z/USDT trading pair on July 30, and LOKA will be exchanged at a rate of 1 LOKA = 20 A2Z.
• Ethereum 10th anniversary celebration live stream will be held at 10:30 PM, and a limited-time free NFT will be launched.
• Strategy plans to announce its second quarter financial report on July 31.
• Big Time (BIGTIME) will unlock approximately 600 million tokens worth about 32 million USD on July 30.
• Kamino (KMNO) will unlock approximately 229 million tokens on July 30, which accounts for 9.53% of the current circulating supply, valued at around 13.8 million USD.
• Optimism (OP) will unlock approximately 31.34 million tokens on July 31, accounting for 1.79% of the current circulation, valued at around 22.8 million US dollars.
• The Federal Reserve interest rate decision in the U.S. until July 30 ( upper limit ) (July 31 02:00)
• Federal Reserve Chair Powell holds a monetary policy press conference. (July 31, 02:30)
• Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending July 26 were ( million ): previous value 21.7, forecast value 22.4 (July 31, 20:30)
• US June Core PCE Price Index Year-on-Year: Previous Value 2.7%, Forecast Value 2.7% (July 31, 20:30)

Top 100 market cap biggest gains today: HEX up 25.4%, PulseX up 20.7%, XDC Network up 11.4%, Four up 11%, Pump.fun up 10%.

5. Hot News

• A certain digital asset company has cumulatively purchased over $1.19 billion in Bitcoin within 9 hours.
• A certain investment company purchased BitMine shares worth 15.3 million dollars again on Tuesday.
• BTCS plans to raise $2 billion to increase investment in cryptocurrency.
• Linea announces the token distribution details, with 9% distributed to users through airdrops.
• Multiple addresses accumulated a total of 648,000 Ether within half a month, valued at 2.44 billion dollars.
• Market news: pump.fun promises to use 100% of daily revenue for buybacks.
• The listed company 180 Life plans to privately raise approximately $425 million and transform into an Ethereum treasury reserve company.
• The DEGEN Foundation discusses the phased destruction of 32.5% of its total supply of DEGEN tokens.