Crypto Assets Market Weekly Report

Performance of BTC and ETH

This week, the Crypto Assets market showed overall fluctuations. Bitcoin failed to follow the rise of the US stock market and other risk markets, instead experiencing a decline, mainly affected by the liquidity shortage over the weekend and the BTC movements from Mt. Gox addresses this week. Ethereum fell alongside the market, but the decline was smaller than that of Bitcoin, showing relatively strong performance. The continuous outflow of funds from the spot ETF reflects investors' lack of interest in Ethereum.

Important Events

1. Adjustment of Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations in September: Economic data shows that the US economy remains resilient, and the market expects a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September.

2. Geopolitical tensions escalate again: The Iranian Revolutionary Guard attacks US troops at a base in Lebanon, and the US increases military presence. Ukraine intensifies its strikes against Russia, with the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant being attacked, increasing uncertainty.

3. Mtgox Address BTC Movement: Approximately $2 billion worth of BTC has been transferred, and the market believes it may be a test before the final payout, leading to a decline. However, it also means that the long-standing unresolved Mtgox risk is about to come to an end.

Altcoin Overview

Market sentiment has slightly rebounded this week, with the fear index rising from 9.2% to 13%, but it remains in the fear zone. Altcoins have outperformed BTC and ETH, showing signs of catch-up. However, due to a lack of hot topics and external factors, this catch-up may be difficult to sustain.

The top five tokens ranked by growth are spread across different tracks such as L1s, NFTs, ETH-L2, DEX, and cross-chain, with a rebound strength greater than last week. The overall rebound strength of Meme coins is not as strong as other tracks.

The hottest topic on social media is the L1s track, with most related projects seeing an increase, performing better than BTC and ETH, which may be a rebound from last week's weakness.

In terms of weekly returns, SocialFi performed the best, primarily driven by the rise of TON. The AI sector underperformed, with most tokens showing weak trends, indicating insufficient market attention and capital inflow.

Next Week Outlook

1. Bitcoin: It is expected to continue to fluctuate widely before the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, influenced by economic data, interest rate cut expectations, and geopolitical situations.

2. Ethereum: Spot ETF funds continue to flow out, lacking attraction, possibly fluctuating with high correlation to Bitcoin.

3. Altcoin: The momentum for recovery may be exhausted, and it is expected to fluctuate in sync with the market, lacking sustained upward driving force.