Bitcoin Halving One Year Anniversary: Changes and Maturity in Market Behavior

Bitcoin has been a year since the last Halving, and this cycle presents a completely different situation compared to previous years. Unlike the explosive increase seen after past Halvings, this round has a relatively moderate increase of only 31%, while the increase during the same period of the previous cycle was as high as 436%.

At the same time, long-term holder metrics (such as the MVRV ratio) indicate a significant decline in unrealized profits, suggesting that the market is maturing and the upside potential is being compressed. Overall, these changes imply that Bitcoin may be entering a new era characterized by gradual growth rather than parabolic peaks, driven more by institutions.

Unique Period Performance

The development pattern of this Bitcoin cycle is significantly different from previous years, which may indicate a shift in the market's reaction to the Halving event.

In the early cycles (especially from 2012 to 2016 and from 2016 to 2020), Bitcoin typically experienced strong increases after Halving. This period was often accompanied by strong upward momentum and parabolic price movements, mainly driven by retail enthusiasm and speculative demand.

However, the current cycle has taken a different path. The price did not accelerate upward after the Halving, but instead began to surge in advance in October and December 2024, followed by a consolidation in January 2025 and a correction in late February.

This early rise behavior is entirely different from historical patterns, as past Halvings have usually served as a catalyst for significant increases.

The factors causing this shift are diverse. Bitcoin is no longer just a retail-driven speculative asset; it is increasingly being viewed as a mature financial instrument. The increased participation of institutional investors, combined with macroeconomic pressures and changes in market structure, has led to a more cautious and complex market response.

Another obvious sign of this evolution is the weakening intensity of each cycle. As Bitcoin's market value grows, the explosive price increases seen in the early years are becoming increasingly difficult to replicate. For example, during the 2020 to 2024 cycle, Bitcoin rose by 436% one year after the Halving. In contrast, the price increase during the same period in this cycle is only 31%, which is much more moderate.

This transformation may indicate that Bitcoin is entering a new phase characterized by reduced volatility and more stable long-term growth. Halving may no longer be the main driving force, as other factors such as interest rates, liquidity, and institutional funds are playing a larger role.

It is worth noting that previous cycles have also experienced consolidation and pullback phases before regaining an upward trend. Although this phase may feel slow or lack excitement, it could represent a healthy adjustment before the next round of increases.

This cycle may continue to deviate from historical patterns. It may not experience a dramatic bubble burst at the top, but instead show a more persistent and structurally sound upward trend, driven more by fundamentals than by speculation.

Long-term Holder MVRV Ratio Reveals Market Maturity

The market value of Long-Term Holders (LTH) and the MVRV ratio have always been reliable indicators of unrealized profits. It shows the profits that long-term investors have made before they start to sell. However, over time, this value is declining.

During the cycle from 2016 to 2020, the LTH MVRV ratio peaked at 35.8, indicating significant unrealized profits and a clear top formation. By the cycle from 2020 to 2024, this peak sharply dropped to 12.2, even though Bitcoin price reached an all-time high at that time.

In this cycle, the highest value of the LTH MVRV ratio so far is only 4.35, showing a significant decline. This indicates that the profits obtained by long-term holders are far lower than in previous cycles, despite the substantial increase in Bitcoin prices. This trend is quite evident: the profit multiples in each cycle are decreasing.

The explosive upward space of Bitcoin is being compressed, and the market is maturing.

This is not a coincidence. As the market matures, explosive returns naturally become harder to achieve. The era of extreme, cycle-driven profit multiples may be fading, replaced by more moderate or stable growth.

The continuously growing market size means that exponentially more capital is needed to significantly drive up prices.

However, this does not confirm that the current cycle has peaked. Previous cycles typically include long periods of consolidation or slight pullback phases before reaching new highs.

As the role of institutional investors becomes increasingly important, the accumulation phase may last longer. Therefore, the sell-off of peak profits may not be as sudden as in earlier cycles.

However, if the MVRV ratio peak decline trend continues, it may reinforce the view that Bitcoin is transitioning from a frenzy, cyclical surge to a more moderate but structured growth model.

The most intense price increase may have already passed, especially for investors who entered the market later in the cycle.