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Goldman Sachs significantly delays the expectations for The Federal Reserve (FED) interest rate cuts, SEC Chairman unveils new vision for encryption regulation丨 Gate Research Institute
Crypto Market Overview
BTC (-2.38% | Current Price 101,550 USDT): Yesterday, after a joint statement was released by China and the United States on Monday to ease trade tensions, BTC surged to around 105,800 USD, then slightly retraced to 102,000 USD, finding brief support at the lower band of the 4H Bollinger Bands while being in the vacuum area between the upper and middle bands of the 1D Bollinger Bands. Short-term market trends should pay attention to the US April CPI data to be released tonight.【1】 Yesterday, the net inflow of BTC ETFs was $5.9 million, with BlackRock's IBIT inflow at $70.2 million, while most other ETFs had small net outflows. [2]
ETH (-3.49% | Current price 2,425 USDT): Yesterday, ETH followed the market surge but encountered resistance again near $2,600 under the dual pressure of the upper Bollinger Bands on the 4H and 1D charts. It has currently fallen back to the mid-band area of the 4H chart, and the short-term trend may continue to decline. The market share of ETH remains around 9%, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate has slightly decreased. 【3】 Yesterday, the overall outflow of ETH ETFs was $17.6 million, with Grayscale's ETHE seeing an outflow of $9.6 million and Fidelity's FETH having an outflow of $8 million. On May 12, according to Cointelegraph, BlackRock submitted an application to the SEC to allow its ETH ETF for physical redemption, enabling customers to directly repurchase ETH.
Shanzhai coins: Meme, AI, RWA and other sectors are experiencing a widespread decline, and the overall market has entered a brief correction. The Fear and Greed Index is at 70, indicating that the current market is still in a state of greed.【5]
Macro: Yesterday, all three major U.S. stock indexes surged, with the S&P 500 index up 3.26%, closing at 5,844.19 points; the Dow Jones index up 2.81%, closing at 42,410.10 points; and the Nasdaq index up 4.35%, closing at 18,708.34 points.【6] As of May 13, 12:00 AM (UTC+8), the spot gold price is reported at $3,243.73 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.49%.【7】
Popular Tokens on Juejin
HAEDAL Haedal Protocol (+17.42%, circulating market value 29.7 million USD)
Haedal is a leading liquid staking protocol built on Sui, where users can earn consensus rewards by staking SUI and Walrus tokens, while also releasing liquidity to participate in DeFi. Haedal aims to become the staking and yield platform on Sui, ensuring network security and promoting decentralization. Its supporting products, such as Haedal Market Maker and haeVault, can capture on-chain trading value, enhance yields, and improve liquidity efficiency.
The main reason for Haedal's rise is that it has a significant first-mover advantage and innovation ability in the Sui ecosystem. First of all, the penetration rate of liquid staking on the Sui network is only 2%, while Haedal has quickly surpassed $200 million in TVL, seizing the leading position in the market. Secondly, its dynamic validator selection mechanism continues to provide users with annualized returns that are higher than the market average. In addition, the HMM market maker component optimizes DEX liquidity with oracle pricing and real-time data, resulting in a surge in trading volume and a significant increase in fee income. In addition, Haedal's governance token has a variety of use cases, and staking can participate in HaeDAO and enjoy additional yield bonuses and potential airdrop incentives. Finally, seed rounds from renowned institutions such as Hashed, Comma3 Ventures, and Animoca Brands endorsed the project and provided ongoing funding and resources.
In summary, Haedal stands out in the Sui liquidity staking field due to its high growth potential, differentiated technological architecture, and strong data performance, driving a significant increase in token prices.
POLYX Polymesh (+12.25%, circulating market cap 181 million USD)
Polymesh is an institution-grade permissioned blockchain designed specifically for regulated assets, such as security tokens, launched by the Polymath team in 2021. It aims to promote the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) by addressing core issues such as compliance, identity verification, privacy protection, and efficient settlement. It is built on the Substrate framework, supports customized rules and on-chain governance, and ensures security through a Nominated Proof of Stake (NPoS) consensus mechanism.
The tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) has become an important narrative of the crypto market in 2025, and institutions such as Goldman Sachs and BlackRock have accelerated their layout, and the market is expected to grow strongly. After the collapse of the Mantra protocol, Polymesh, as the leader of the compliant RWA public chain, attracted the attention of funds. As the hype of meme coins cools down, funds turn to tracks with strong fundamentals (such as RWA), and POLYX, as a low-capitalization ($181 million) and high-growth target, attracts speculation and investment demand.
In addition, compared to other public chains, Polymesh's strong compliance features, such as KYC integration and regulatory-friendly architecture, make it more attractive in an environment of tightening policies, raising expectations for institutional entry and boosting valuations. If the enthusiasm for the RWA sector declines or cooperation progresses slower than expected, a pullback may occur. However, in the long run, POLYX is still in the early dividend phase of RWA infrastructure.
TRUMP Official Trump (-9.69%, circulating market cap 2.507 billion USD)
The TRUMP token is a meme coin launched on the Solana chain, officially released in January 2025 by Donald Trump, the 47th President of the United States, and his affiliated companies. It aims to celebrate his presidential inauguration and promote the token's value through cultural symbols and community participation. The total supply of TRUMP tokens is 1 billion, with an initial circulation of 20% (200 million), while the remaining 80% is held by companies under the Trump Group and will be gradually unlocked over three years.
On April 24, the official website of TRUMP Meme Coin stated that the TRUMP dinner will invite the top 220 wallet addresses. The TRUMP token surged, reflecting a typical "buy the expectation, sell the fact" market. Once the positive news is realized or the hype fades, some investors began to take profits. On May 12, rumors circulated that Trump's social platform Truth Social is about to launch Meme Coin, and the market mistakenly thought a new official token would be introduced, which could potentially substitute or dilute the existing TRUMP token, leading to a large number of investors selling off in advance.
Despite the official denial from Truth Social on May 13 regarding the rumors of issuing a Meme coin, TRUMP briefly rose, but market sentiment has been depleted, combined with a market pullback, further intensifying the selling pressure on TRUMP.
Alpha Interpretation
The Chair of the SEC, Paul Atkins, announced a new vision for encryption regulation, adopting a friendlier policy.
The chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Gary Gensler, stated on Monday local time that the current framework allowing brokers to act as custodians of digital assets may need to be abolished and replaced, and revealed that they are considering granting hedge funds the authority to self-custody encryption assets. Currently, only two institutions in the United States have obtained the "special purpose broker-dealer" license.
Atkins pointed out at the digital asset roundtable that this sluggish response is due to the "significant restrictions" imposed by the previous government. Atkins has urged SEC staff to explore new paths for cryptocurrency regulation, including examining whether to revise custody rules to allow hedge funds, trading firms, and investment advisors to self-custody digital assets.
SEC Chairman Paul Atkins stated that he will promote a more friendly encryption regulatory policy, marking a potential shift in the U.S. regulatory attitude towards embracing innovation. This is a significant positive for Bitcoin and the entire crypto market, as it may lower compliance costs, attract more institutional funds, and boost market confidence. Especially allowing more institutions to self-custody is expected to alleviate the bottleneck in crypto asset custody and promote the long-term healthy development of the industry.【8】
Goldman Sachs pushes back the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations to the end of the year, lowers the likelihood of a U.S. recession.
After the joint statement released by China and the U.S. on Monday to ease trade tensions, traders on Wall Street and in the interest rate market have reduced their bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this year. They now expect two rate cuts in 2025, and the timeline for the next rate cut has also been significantly pushed back. Goldman Sachs has postponed the timing of the Fed's next rate cut to December, from July previously.
The latest tracking of interest rate swaps expectations for the Federal Reserve meeting shows that the Fed may only cut rates by about 55 basis points this year, a significant decrease from last Friday's bet of 75 basis points. Traders also expect the first rate cut to start in September. As the market reduces expectations for rate cuts from the Fed this year, the two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is particularly sensitive to monetary policy, surged by as much as 12 basis points on Monday, breaking back above the 4% mark.
Goldman Sachs delays its expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and lowers the likelihood of a recession in the United States, indicating that monetary policy may remain tight for a longer period. This exerts short-term pressure on emerging high-risk assets such as Bitcoin, as tightening liquidity and rising interest rates are generally unfavorable for risk appetite. However, the easing of U.S.-China relations and expectations of stable long-term interest rates may provide support for the market going forward. Overall, the short-term outlook is negative, while the medium to long-term requires observation of macroeconomic trends and inflation.
Gate.io HODLer Airdrop
New Subscription Details
Subscription Project: aiSUI
Token Name: SUIAGENT
Subscription time: until May 14, 2025, 16:00 (UTC+8)
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Total airdrop amount: 10,400,000 SUIAGENT
Project Introduction
aiSUI is a groundbreaking AI dApp suite developed on the Sui blockchain, designed to enable anyone to build, deploy smart agents, and achieve profitability. aiSUI combines advanced AI tools with blockchain infrastructure, lowering the entry barrier for developers and enterprises into the AI economy. Users can create custom AI agents using a powerful no-code or low-code platform, instantly tokenize them, and deploy them on-chain or off-chain to perform practical tasks. aiSUI is powered by the SUIAGENT token, providing seamless AI monetization and integration capabilities for enterprises, developers, and the community. SUIAGENT is the native token of the aiSUI ecosystem, serving as both the transaction layer for agent interactions and a governance tool guiding the future development of the platform.
Reference:
Gate Research Institute is a comprehensive blockchain and encryption research platform that provides readers with in-depth content, including technical analysis, hot insights, market reviews, industry research, trend predictions, and macroeconomic policy analysis.
Disclaimer Investing in the crypto market involves high risks, and users are advised to conduct independent research and fully understand the nature of the assets and products being purchased before making any investment decisions. Gate.io is not responsible for any losses or damages resulting from such investment decisions.