Matrixport Research: BTC breaks 100,000 USD, bullish price difference options or at that time - ChainCatcher

Since the BTC price broke through 85,450 USD, the BTC price has risen by more than 19%. With alts performing poorly, and BTC reaching a historic turning point in global money supply metrics (which often signals a strong pump trend), BTC once again approached 100,000 USD on the 8th and successfully broke through.

Technical Indicators: BTC returns to the 21-week moving average and breaks through the Fibonacci resistance level.

As of April 25, BTC has once again stood above our 21-week moving average of $87,199, providing a reasonable basis for buying call options, especially after BTC broke through the Fibonacci resistance level of $87,045 and the inflow of ETF funds accelerated. The confirmation of the moving average, the Fibonacci breakout, and the increase in ETF fund inflows together form a robust tactical framework, allowing investors to effectively control risks while capturing the rise in BTC and profiting.

Macroeconomic Background: Decrease in Interest Rate Expectations

In the past 18 months, global monetary policy has significantly altered the capital flow into digital assets. With interest rates remaining high, traditional investors are reassessing their risk allocations, and the Federal Reserve's communication strategy has become particularly crucial. The minutes from the November FOMC meeting released on December 7, 2024, shattered market expectations for four rate cuts in 2025, reducing the forecast for rate cuts to just two.

Market sentiment: BTC dominance rising, altcoin market lacking narrative drive.

On-chain data reveals the degree of market differentiation. BTC's market dominance (measured by its proportion of the total market capitalization of the entire crypto market) has risen from 49% at the beginning of the ETF era to the current 64.5%, a level not seen since the DeFi boom in 2021. This change reflects the highest risk-adjusted returns among all major indicators in digital assets, indicating a clear risk-off sentiment in the market.

At the same time, retail investor sentiment remains relatively low, with trading volumes on both centralized exchanges and DeFi protocols at multi-year lows. Due to the lack of strong narrative drivers—no new disruptive DeFi applications, breakthroughs in Layer-2 technology, or a viral meme coin craze—retail investors are still on the sidelines. Since December 2024, discussions around altcoins on social media have decreased by over 40%, while discussions related to BTC remain high, reflecting the market's continued interest in BTC as a macro hedge asset.

The summer consolidation is imminent, and in the absence of significant catalytic factors, the sentiment-driven pump of alts is difficult to form. Given that technical, macroeconomic, and market structure factors have not positively driven alts, the funding rate for altcoin perpetual contracts remains low. Maintain long positions on BTC through spot or perpetual futures, and use altcoin perpetual futures as a hedging tool or for a decent arbitrage method.

Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment should be approached with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided herein.