XRP Price Prediction: MVRV Ratio Surprises with "Death Cross", Key Support $2.85 Faces Test

Famous analyst Ali Martinez issued a warning: The core on-chain indicator MVRV ratio (market capitalization/realized market capitalization) has fallen below the 200-day moving average, forming a technical "Death Cross" (Death Cross) **signal, suggesting a potential **Depth pullback. Currently, XRP is trading around $3.00, with a weekly decline of 6.5%. If the key support at $2.85 is lost, it may trigger further declines. Investors need to closely follow the on-chain cost structure and price divergence risks.

MVRV ratio death cross: a precursor to a depth pullback?

• Signal Interpretation: Ali Martinez has detected that the MVRV ratio of XRP (blue line) has fallen below its 200-day moving average (yellow line), forming a classic bearish pattern known as a "death cross." Historically similar patterns (such as at the beginning of the year) are often accompanied by significant price pullbacks.
• Indicator Meaning:
  • MVRV Ratio = Market Capitalization ( / Realized Cap )
  • Realized Market Capitalization (: The total value calculated based on the last price at which each token moved on-chain (i.e., the approximate holding cost), reflecting the actual invested capital in the market.
  • MVRV > 1: The market is overall profitable; MVRV < 1: The market is overall losing.
• Current Status: Although XRP's MVRV ratio is still above 1 (overall market profit), the recent drop below the 200-day moving average indicates that profit margins are quickly narrowing, and selling pressure is accumulating.

) on-chain cost structure reveals market vulnerabilities

• Core Logic Conflict:
  • Current market capitalization($3.00 price) is still higher than realized market capitalization (total market cost basis), theoretically indicating that holders are overall profitable.
  • But the death cross signal indicates: the recent speed of price decline has exceeded the stability of long-term cost support, and short-term holders may panic sell as they approach the cost line.
• Historical Reference: In early 2025, after the MVRV ratio fell below the 200-day moving average, the price of XRP experienced a significant pullback. This signal reappearing requires high vigilance.

price trend and key support level analysis

• Current Price: $3.00 ( fell 6.5% over the past week )
• Bull-Bear Threshold: $2.85
  • This is where the psychological barrier and technical support converge; if it is lost, it may trigger programmatic selling and stop-loss orders.
• Downside Risk: If the death cross signal is effective, the price may test lower support (referencing historical volatility), and the short-term fall may expand.
• Bullish Defense Line: Only a rapid rebound above the 200-day moving average of the MVRV ratio can weaken the current bearish structure.

Investor Response Strategies

1. Beware of Selling Pressure: The MVRV death cross is a medium-term risk signal, and leverage should be reduced to avoid volatility.
2. Focus on $2.85: This position is the focal point of short-term long and short speculation; if it breaks down effectively, consider reducing positions.
3. On-chain monitoring: Follow net inflow of exchanges (whether there are whale movements) and whether MVRV can return above 1.1 (profit cushion recovery).

Conclusion: The "death cross" signaled by the XRP on-chain MVRV ratio is the clearest bearish technical signal in recent times, reflecting that the market cost support is being rapidly eroded. Although the overall positions are still in profit, the deterioration of the indicators suggests an increased risk of a depth pullback. Investors should prioritize monitoring the $2.85 key support defense battle, as the outcome will determine the short-term trend direction. Under the dual influence of regulatory uncertainty (following the SEC lawsuit) and a weakening technical outlook, XRP must effectively resolve this signal to regain upward momentum.