Super Week is coming! The data for the next three days will determine the trend of the crypto market in the second half of the year?

This week will be the "busiest week of the year for data" in the United States. What major events are worth following in the next three days? How will the future trends of the crypto market look?

1. Major Events to Follow in the Next Three Days

1.Federal Reserve meeting

At 2:00 AM Beijing time on July 31, the Federal Reserve will announce the latest interest rate decision, and Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference.

On July 28 local time, Trump stated that the Federal Reserve must lower interest rates. Trump said, "Even without lowering interest rates, the U.S. is doing well, but it would be better after the rates are lowered." Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's term ends in May 2026. The Federal Reserve led by Powell is reluctant to lower the benchmark rate from the current target range of 4.25% to 4.50% down to 1% as Trump requested, in order to reduce the federal government's borrowing costs. Trump is dissatisfied with this and has repeatedly threatened to make Powell "leave."

Nick Timiraos, the "Fed's mouthpiece," published an article stating that Federal Reserve officials expect they will ultimately need to continue lowering interest rates, but they are not yet ready to do so on Wednesday. Their disagreement lies in what evidence they need to see first and whether waiting for everything to become clear is a mistake. Officials are now split into three camps on whether to resume rate cuts. The focus will be on whether Powell will provide any hints about a September rate cut during the press conference, and whether his colleagues will begin laying the groundwork for the next meeting's rate cut in the coming days and weeks.

Huatai Securities research report states: Although Trump has repeatedly pressured Powell to cut interest rates since the June meeting, and some members within the Federal Reserve have called for a rate cut in July, considering the overall employment market is exceeding expectations and tariffs will gradually transmit to inflation in the future, **it is expected that the Federal Reserve is highly likely to remain unchanged at the July meeting; the subsequent interest rate cut decisions will depend on the economic data from July to August, and maintaining a weakening employment market will prompt the Federal Reserve's judgment of a preventive rate cut twice from September to December.

"Credit Suisse believes that the Federal Reserve may restart the interest rate cut cycle at the September FOMC meeting. The weakening economic outlook means that the Federal Reserve will implement a more accommodative monetary policy in the second half of the year. The uncertainty surrounding inflation after the tariff increase, as well as the political pressure from President Trump to cut interest rates, have hindered the rate cut this month. After July, stagnant private consumption and reduced investment plans (indicating weakened demand) will prove that, despite inflation being above target, reducing restrictive policy stance is reasonable."

According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 96.9%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 3.1%. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September is 35.4%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at 62.6%, and a cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut at 2.0%.

Although a rate cut is not expected, the outcome of a cut may have already been largely priced in by the market given the neutral tone persisting in July. However, any dovish remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell could change market sentiment. If Powell hints at a possible rate cut in September, the market may move ahead of expectations, driving Bitcoin to break through $123,000 and set a new high.

Probability of target interest rate from the Federal Reserve's July FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group

2. Trump's tariff policy

On August 1, Trump's new tariff measures will come into effect.

On July 28, Trump stated that the United States is expected to impose tariffs of 15% to 20% on countries that have not reached trade agreements with Washington. After meeting with British Prime Minister Starmer at his golf resort in Turnberry, Scotland, Trump told reporters, "I think it will be between 15% and 20%." "It could be one of those two numbers." Trump indicated that the U.S. will soon send letters to about 200 countries notifying them of the expected tariff rates on U.S. exports. Since April, Trump has imposed an additional 10% tariff on most countries, and tariff rates for many other countries will be increased starting August 1. The tariff agreements for the three key areas of steel and aluminum, chips, and spirits remain undecided.

Trump stated that the EU also promised to purchase $750 billion worth of energy products from the United States and to make an additional investment of $600 billion in the U.S. In addition, the EU will make large-scale purchases of U.S. military equipment.

U.S. Secretary of Commerce Ross Lutnik stated that Trump will make tariff decisions regarding other countries this week. Trump will consider several agreements this week and then determine the tax rates. For those countries that have proposed to provide access, our negotiating table is ready.

After U.S. President Trump announced a major trade agreement between the EU and the U.S., European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen explained some of the decisions in the trade negotiations with the U.S. Von der Leyen stated that the EU still relies too heavily on Russian liquefied natural gas, so importing more affordable liquefied natural gas from the U.S. is very popular. Regarding tariff arrangements, von der Leyen confirmed that the tariff for the automotive industry is set at 15% in the agreement. She stated that in the current situation, a 15% tariff level is the best result the Commission can achieve. Additionally, she confirmed that the EU and the U.S. have also reached an agreement in the pharmaceutical sector, implementing a unified tariff rate of 15%. Von der Leyen admitted that the EU and the U.S. have yet to make a decision regarding the spirits sector, and the details of the trade agreement framework signed that day will be announced in the coming weeks.

On the same day, German Chancellor Merz stated that he is not satisfied with the tariff agreement reached between the EU and the US, and that the 15% tariff imposed by the US on EU goods will be a significant burden on Germany's export-oriented economy. However, Merz also acknowledged that the current tariff rate imposed by the US on EU goods has been reduced by half from the 30% previously claimed by the US, and he cannot expect a better outcome.

Mosaic Asset pointed out: "The easing of trade tensions and the tailwind of liquidity have propelled the S&P 500 Index to a new high, while volatility has fallen to its lowest level since the beginning of the year. **M2 has rebounded from its bottom since 2023 and is currently reaching new highs alongside major stock indices." Throughout the history of the crypto market, the performance of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies has been closely related to the trend of global M2 liquidity. **

3. The regulatory system for stablecoin issuers in Hong Kong will come into effect.

On August 1st, the Hong Kong "Stablecoin Regulation" will take effect.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has indicated that a 6-month transition arrangement will be set up to handle institutions that already have stablecoin issuance business in Hong Kong, including issuing temporary licenses to issuers capable of complying with regulatory requirements. If an issuer fails to meet the relevant requirements within 3 months after the regulations come into effect, they must orderly cease their business in Hong Kong within 4 months after the law takes effect. If the Financial Commissioner is not satisfied that the issuer is capable of meeting the licensing criteria and regulatory requirements, the issuer must orderly cease their Hong Kong business within one month after receiving a notice of refusal.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) released the "Guidelines for Licensed Stablecoin Issuers" and the "Guidelines for Combating Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing (Applicable to Licensed Stablecoin Issuers)" on July 29, regarding the regulatory regime for stablecoin issuers that will take effect on August 1, 2025, along with a consultation summary of the two guidelines. The two sets of guidelines will be published in the Gazette on August 1, 2025. The HKMA also issued a "Summary of the Licensing Regime and Application Procedures for Stablecoin Issuers" and a "Summary of Transitional Provisions for Existing Stablecoin Issuers" related to the licensing system. The HKMA stated that no licenses have been issued to date. Institutions intending to apply for a license are encouraged to contact the HKMA on or before August 31, 2025, so that the HKMA can communicate its regulatory expectations and provide appropriate feedback. Licensing will be an ongoing process, and if individual institutions believe they are adequately prepared and wish to be considered early, they should submit their applications to the HKMA on or before September 30, 2025.

The popularity of stablecoins in Hong Kong is extremely high. Eddie Yue, the Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, published an article on July 23 titled "Stablecoins for Sustainable Development," warning against excessive speculation and the need to prevent financial risks. "We need to guard against excessive speculation in the market and public opinion. Recently, there are some phenomena worth our attention: first, there is excessive conceptualization, but what deserves more attention is the trend of bubble formation."

Everbright Securities released a research report stating that the global retail cross-border payment market is expected to reach $39.9 trillion in 2024. According to FXC Intelligence, this scale will increase to $64.5 trillion by 2032, with a compound annual growth rate of 6.2% from 2024 to 2032. In the business layers of RMB cross-border clearing and multi-currency settlement, third-party payment institutions have deeply embedded themselves in the full-chain service ecosystem of payments, playing a significant role. It is expected that stablecoins will drive the global expansion of RMB cross-border payment infrastructure and diversify application scenarios, thus providing promising revenue growth space for third-party payment companies. In the long term, the development space for compliant stablecoins is vast, which will help standardize the stablecoin market, enhance investor confidence, and promote market scale expansion.

4. The Q2 GDP data of the United States will be released.

On July 30th local time, the US Q2 GDP data will be released.

Data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on Tuesday showed that the goods trade deficit in June narrowed by 10.8% from the previous month, falling to $86 billion. This data is not adjusted for inflation and is below the forecasts of all economists surveyed by the media.

The latest U.S. June merchandise trade data has prompted some economists to raise their forecasts for U.S. second-quarter GDP, which will be released on Wednesday. Analysts believe that the trade phenomenon that dragged down U.S. GDP at the beginning of the year is expected to be fundamentally reversed in the latest quarter.

According to the real-time forecast of the Atlanta Fed, the GDP growth rates for Q2 2025 are 2.90% and 2.38%.

Goldman Sachs previously raised its GDP growth forecast for the second quarter from -0.3% to 2.4%, believing that the GDP data for the first quarter may have been underestimated.

Moody's Analytics predicts that the full-year GDP growth in the United States will be 1.5% in 2025, but believes that the data for the second quarter may be slightly higher, and notes that the U.S. economy will be in a "weak expansion" state.

If the U.S. Q2 GDP data exceeds expectations, the improving economy will encourage investors' risk appetite, leading to some funds flowing into the crypto market.

The non-farm data will be released.

On Friday local time, the U.S. non-farm data will be released.

The non-farm payroll report for July, released on Friday, is expected to confirm that corporate hiring is becoming more cautious. Following a surge in employment in the education sector in June that inflated the data, job additions are expected to slow down this month, with the unemployment rate possibly rising slightly to 4.2%. The U.S. government's personal income and outlays report for June is expected to show a slight acceleration in the core inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve, indicating that tariffs are only gradually being passed on to consumers.

Citigroup analysts pointed out in their latest research report that if signs of weakness appear in the U.S. labor market, it will trigger a reassessment of more dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve, which will in turn promote a new round of decline in the dollar, leading funds to seek new investment channels, enhancing the attractiveness of encryption currencies. Citigroup expects that non-farm employment growth will slow to 100,000 in July, and the unemployment rate may rise to 4.2%.

6. Tech Giants Earnings Season

After the market close on Wednesday and Thursday local time, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon will successively release their financial reports.

Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon, the four tech giants, will successively release their earnings reports this Wednesday and Thursday. The performance of these companies, with a total market capitalization of up to $11.3 trillion, will be a key test of whether the S&P 500 index can continue its upward trend. According to media data, among the approximately one-third of S&P 500 index component companies that have reported earnings, about 82% exceeded expectations, potentially marking the best quarterly performance in nearly four years.

However, analysts have significantly lowered their expectations over the past few months, primarily due to concerns about the impact of tariffs on consumer spending and profit margins. The earnings forecasts for large technology companies have also been reduced. Data shows that the second quarter earnings growth for "Mag7" is expected to be 16% year-on-year, down from the 19% predicted at the end of March. Meanwhile, the expected year-on-year earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 index is 4.5%, also lower than the 7.5% predicted in March.

If performance is good, it will drive overall optimism in the market, increase capital activity, and funds flowing into the crypto market may increase. If performance is below expectations, market confidence will be undermined, the demand for capital to avoid risk will rise, and funds may flow into stable assets, leading to outflows from the cryptocurrency market.

2. How will the future of the crypto market unfold?

Although the short-term market structure outlines the contours of a bullish recovery, the long-term pattern indicates that the bullish momentum of BTC may be weakening. A double top formation may appear near its historical high, reflecting buyer fatigue. If it fails to break through the daily supply zone at 123,200 USD, this bearish pattern will be validated, hindering price discovery.

Bitcoin 12-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The daily relative strength index of Bitcoin has sharply dropped from 74.4 to 51.7, indicating that the spot market is indeed weakening, while the daily trading volume has fallen to $8.6 billion. Both of these figures indicate that market participation is declining. The fund flow of the spot BTC exchange-traded fund (ETF) has also decreased by 80% compared to last week, falling from $2.5 billion to $496 million, suggesting that institutional investors' interest is cooling off.

Although the open interest in futures remains at a high level of $45.6 billion, the increase in bullish funds indicates that the market's excessive confidence is intensifying. In addition, 96.9% of the supply is still in a profitable state, which indicates a high possibility of profit-taking.

The historical return rate for August further confirms this view. In August, over 60% of the funds closed at a loss, with an average return rate of 2.56%, indicating that the upcoming months will face seasonal headwinds. Coupled with a decrease in on-chain activity, such as a decline in active addresses and transfer volumes, BTC prices may pull back in the coming weeks.

BTC historical monthly average return rate. Source: Axel Adler Jr.

The latest research from the on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant believes that the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) has been growing in sync with BTC/USD, which may indicate a lack of stablecoin liquidity or "dry powder" available for investment.

The author Arab Chain believes: "The rise of this indicator suggests that the number of stablecoins is low compared to the trading volume of Bitcoin. In other words, liquidity is weak, and therefore the market lacks the high purchasing power needed to support Bitcoin. The increase in this indicator, along with the rise in Bitcoin prices, indicates that this increase is happening without new stablecoins entering at the same pace. The continued rise of this indicator may suggest that future buying momentum could weaken due to low liquidity." The market may be entering a "temporarily saturated" period. "The market is still partially supported by liquidity, but the continued rise of Bitcoin will require a significant increase in stablecoin reserves in the coming days."

Bitcoin SSR and BTC/USD price chart. Source: CryptoQuant

Trader Crypto Tony predicts: "If Bitcoin can tighten and stay above $117,000, then I believe we will soon set a new all-time high."

Rekt Capital stated: "Currently, BTC needs to avoid breaking through the top resistance level of the bull flag, otherwise the price will remain within the range."