Historical data shows that Ethereum is likely to fall in September after a pump in August.

Written by: White55, Mars Finance

Data shows that since 2016, whenever the price of Ethereum rises in August, the price tends to fall in September.

Since the beginning of August, the price of Ethereum has increased by 25%, but historical data suggests that the cryptocurrency may lose momentum in September.

Cryptocurrency trader CryptoGoos stated in a post on X on Friday that the seasonal trend for ETH in September is usually negative in the year following a halving. Will this time be different?

As of the publication of this article, the trading price of Ethereum is $4,785, an increase of about $978 from the opening price of $3,807 on August 1. After Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium, ETH broke through a new high of $4,887 last Friday.

History shows that there is a cautious attitude towards Ether in September.

Powell hinted at a possible interest rate cut next month, and many cryptocurrency market participants believe this could be a potential bullish catalyst.

However, history suggests that caution should be exercised with Ethereum!

Since 2016, the average decline of Ether in September has been 6.42%. Source: CoinGlass

According to CoinGlass data, Ethereum has only increased three times in August since 2016, and each time it rose, it fell in September.

In August 2017, Ethereum surged by 92.86%, and then dropped by 21.65% the following month.

This pattern reoccurred in 2020: a rise of 25.32% in August, followed by a pullback of 17.08% in September.

In 2021, Ethereum rose 35.62% in August and fell 12.55% in September.

In the last three months of 2016 and the last three months of 2020, the price of Ether rose.

Interestingly, despite experiencing losses in September 2016 and 2020, Ethereum saw an increase in the following three months of those two years.

However, the situation in September this year may be different from previous years, as spot Ethereum ETFs and Ether funds have emerged, which were not active during the rebound in August.

On August 11, as cryptocurrency prices soared above $4,300, the total value of Ether held by companies with crypto treasuries exceeded $13 billion.

Source: Satoshi Stacker

On Saturday, blockchain intelligence firm Arkham reported that BitMine Chairman Tom Lee purchased an additional $45 million worth of Ethereum for the company, bringing BitMine's total assets to $7 billion.

August is an important month for spot Ethereum ETFs.

In just August, the net inflow of spot Ethereum ETFs was approximately $2.79 billion, while the net outflow of spot Bitcoin ETFs during the same period was about $1.2 billion.

This fully illustrates that there has been a "significant shift" in the capital inflow between spot Ethereum ETFs and spot Bitcoin ETFs.

At the same time, the Bitcoin dominance, which measures Bitcoin's overall market share, has decreased by 5.88% in the past 30 days, currently standing at 58.19%. Many market participants often attribute this to capital shifting towards the broader cryptocurrency market outside of BTC.