8.22 Macroeconomic Market Analysis

Good morning, brothers. BTC is consolidating around $113000. The reason why the big players are washing the market during this time is that some large holders will cut their losses, waiting for signals of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Some say there will be no rate cuts, while others say cuts will start soon, leading to market divergence. Once new signals emerge, large capital will begin to strategize based on the situation.

Currently, the global market is waiting for Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at 22:00 tonight, and the market fluctuations are expected to be significant. The market will assess from Powell's speech whether to start cutting interest rates in September and whether to maintain high interest rates.

As we all know, Trump has been pressuring the Federal Reserve to be more accommodating in order to support economic growth. Federal Reserve chair candidates have also called for interest rate cuts, but current officials have remained tight-lipped.

Huang Licheng currently holds long positions worth 140 million USD, with an unrealized loss of 9.81 million USD. The fact that these big players are starting to lose money or face liquidation indicates that the market is about to reverse.

Three situations tonight
(1) Powell has sent a clear signal that interest rates will be cut in September, which is favorable and sounds the horn for a counterattack, with a probability of 20%.
(2) Powell said it is not appropriate to cut interest rates now, but if he slightly hints at a rate cut, that would be positive, with a probability of 50%.
(3) Powell is unwilling to release any expectations of interest rate cuts, and there are even signs of a renewed strengthening of hawkish sentiment. Therefore, there may be another decline, with a probability of 30%.

Rationally speaking, it's better to wait and see first. If it's spot trading, then gradually buy the dip. For contracts, only take needle orders and wait for the situation to reverse.

Long Ge's analysis is just for friendly reference. Adults must take responsibility for their own decisions. Investing carries risks, please invest with spare money and think independently!