The New Normal of the Crypto Assets Market: Analysis of Four Parallel Cycles

After recent discussions with industry veterans, I have come to a profound realization that the Crypto Assets market has undergone fundamental changes. The traditional "four-year cycle" theory is no longer applicable; instead, there are four distinctly different parallel cycles, each with its unique rhythm, strategy, and profit logic.

Bitcoin Super Cycle: Institution-Led Long-Term Growth

Bitcoin has transformed from a speculative object into an institutional allocation asset. The scale of funds and allocation logic from Wall Street, publicly listed companies, and ETFs has fundamentally changed the price discovery mechanism and volatility characteristics of Bitcoin. We are witnessing a large-scale transfer of retail chips to institutional funds, and this restructuring of chip distribution is redefining the Bitcoin market.

For retail investors, this means the dual pressure of time cost and opportunity cost. Institutional investors can afford a holding period of 3-5 years, waiting for the long-term value of Bitcoin to be realized, while retail investors find it difficult to have such patience and financial strength.

In the future, there is a high possibility of a Bitcoin slow bull market lasting over ten years. The annualized return may stabilize in the range of 20-30%, but the intraday volatility will significantly decrease, resembling a steadily growing tech stock. As for the ultimate price ceiling of Bitcoin, it may be difficult to accurately predict from the current perspective.

MEME Coin Short Cycle: From Grassroots Carnival to Professional Competition

The MEME coin market is essentially a "instant gratification" speculative vehicle that does not require complex technical support; it only needs a symbol that can resonate. From pet themes to political satire, from AI concepts to community IP, MEME coins have developed into a complete "emotional monetization" industrial chain.

The "short, flat, and fast" characteristics of MEME coin make it a barometer of market sentiment and a reservoir of funds. When funds are abundant, it is the preferred testing ground for hot money; when funds are scarce, it becomes the last refuge for speculative investments.

However, the MEME coin market is evolving from "grassroots carnival" to "professional competition". With the entry of professional teams, technical experts, and large capital, the difficulty for ordinary investors to profit in this high-frequency rotation is sharply increasing. In the future, cases of long-term holding resulting in huge returns may become increasingly rare.

Long Cycle of Technological Innovation: Patience Waiting for Breakthrough

Innovations that truly have a technical threshold, such as Layer2 scaling, ZK technology, and AI infrastructure, typically require 2-3 years or even longer development time to see actual results. These types of projects follow the technology maturity curve rather than the emotional cycle of capital markets, and there is a fundamental time difference between the two.

Technical projects are often overestimated in the conceptual stage and underestimated in the "valley of death" stage when the technology is actually implemented. This determines that the value release of technical projects shows a non-linear leap characteristic.

For investors with patience and technical judgment, positioning in promising technical projects during the "valley of death" phase may be the best strategy for achieving excess returns. However, this requires investors to endure long waiting periods and market fluctuations.

Innovative Small Hotspot Short Cycle: Seize the 1-3 Month Window

Before the formation of the main technical narrative, the market often experienced rapid rotations of various small hotspots, from the tokenization of physical assets to decentralized physical infrastructure, from AI smart agents to AI infrastructure (such as model context protocols and inter-agent communication), with each small hotspot typically having a window period of only 1-3 months.

The fragmentation and high-frequency rotation of this narrative reflect the current scarcity of market attention and the demand for funds seeking efficient returns. A typical micro-narrative cycle usually includes six stages: concept verification, capital probing, opinion amplification, panic entry, overvaluation, and capital withdrawal.

To profit in this mode, the key is to enter during the "proof of concept" to "funding trial" stage and exit at the peak of "panic entry." The competitive nature between small narratives is essentially a struggle for attention resources. However, there may be technical correlations and conceptual progression relationships between different narratives.

For example, the model context protocols and inter-agent communication standards in AI infrastructure are, in fact, a technical underlying reconstruction of the narrative of AI intelligent agents. If the subsequent narrative can continue the previous hotspot, forming a systematic upgrade linkage, and truly establish a sustainable value closed loop in this process, it is very likely that a major narrative on the scale of "DeFi summer" will emerge.

From the current narrative pattern, the AI infrastructure layer is most likely to achieve breakthroughs first. If the underlying technologies such as model context protocols, inter-agent communication standards, distributed computing power, inference, and data networks can be organically integrated, there is indeed the potential to construct a significant narrative similar to an "AI summer."

Conclusion

Understanding the essence of these four parallel cycles is crucial for finding suitable strategies at their respective rhythms. Clearly, the simple "four-year cycle" mindset can no longer cope with the complexity of the current market. Adapting to the new norm of "multi-cycle parallelism" may be the key to truly profiting in this market cycle.