Market Trends and Key Indicators

Macroeconomics and Policy Trends

Recently, Trump suggested that it is unlikely he will seek a third term and stated that he will decide on the new Federal Reserve Board member this week. He also plans to announce new tariff policies on drugs and chips within the next week.

Former Treasury Secretaries Paulson and Geithner jointly warned that the U.S. Treasury market faces multiple threats, including an unsustainable fiscal path and issues within the political system. Geithner noted that while the current 10-year Treasury yield is relatively modest, key supports such as the rule of law and the independence of the Federal Reserve are facing unprecedented challenges. This concern was further exacerbated after Trump fired the Director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, raising questions in the market about the credibility of official data.

However, weak employment data has led the market to generally expect that the Federal Reserve's policy shift is imminent. Several financial institutions predict that the Fed may start cutting interest rates as early as September, with a reduction of 25 to 50 basis points, and the final policy rate may drop below 3%.

Overview of the Digital Asset Market

In Hong Kong, the layout of Web3.0 is showing positive effects. Analysts point out that listed companies entering the Web3.0 field through financing are not only promoting financial innovation but also optimizing operational efficiency and enhancing global competitiveness. This trend is attracting global capital and talent, laying the foundation for Hong Kong to build a mature and standardized digital asset ecosystem.

Bitcoin recently fell below the short-term support range, leading to a large number of leveraged long positions being liquidated. Analysts warn that the price may further drop to around $109,000. Several analysts believe that $112,000 is a key support level, and if it can be held, the rebound high may reach $124,000. In the long term, based on liquidity models and historical halving cycles, some predictions suggest that Bitcoin's price could reach between $135,000 and $150,000 around September 2025.

Ethereum's price has rebounded to around $3650, despite experiencing significant net outflows from its ETF. However, on-chain data shows that institutions and large holders are still actively buying. Notably, multiple wallets controlled by a single entity have received a large amount of ETH in a short period.

Market Hotspots and Emerging Trends

Pump.fun's trading volume and token minting quantity have surpassed Bonk.fun, with multiple projects within its ecosystem performing strongly. As a result, several related tokens are ranked high in trading volume, with the TROLL token experiencing a nearly 100% increase in the last 24 hours.

The decentralized derivatives protocol MYX has recently surged significantly, reaching an all-time high. On-chain data suggests that there may be operational behaviors linking spot and contract trading behind its price spike.

It is worth noting that a certain country's security department issued a warning about the risks of biometric data collection, which closely aligns with specific projects, drawing market attention.

Key Data and Market Indicators

• Bitcoin price: $113,525 (Year-to-date +21.98%)
• Ethereum Price: $3,582.39 (Year-to-date +8.91%)
• Fear and Greed Index: 54 (Neutral)
• Market Share: BTC 61.1%, ETH 11.8%
• 24-hour BTC Long/Short Ratio: 48.13%/51.87%
• Total liquidation amount in 24 hours: $358 million

Recent Important Events

• A certain DEX will launch a new token on August 6.
• The implementation date of the specific tariff policy has been postponed to August 7.
• Multiple projects will unlock a large number of tokens in the near future.
• An organization has transferred the large amount of tokens received from the airdrop claim contract.
• A certain platform proposed to allocate all blockchain engine fees to the DAO treasury.
• A certain CEO plans to raise a large amount of funds to support related political actions.

The overall market presents a complex situation, with frequent updates on various projects. Investors need to closely monitor the latest developments and make prudent decisions.