Market Watch: Fed Independence in Focus, Ethereum Rises Strongly

The market is closely watching the potential challenges to the independence of U.S. monetary policy. The focus is on the possible impact on or replacement of Fed Chairman Powell, which is seen as a potential threat to the foundation of the Fed's independence. Analysts are concerned that if the Fed's independence is compromised, it may prioritize debt costs over inflation targets, leading to the risk of long-term inflation expectations spiraling out of control. Although potential successors emphasize their commitment to maintaining independence, the market believes that once the chairman can be easily replaced, the credibility of the successor will be significantly undermined.

Wall Street quickly reacted, resulting in the "Powell hedge" strategy. Some analysts suggested buying short-term government bonds and selling long-term government bonds to steepen the yield curve, in order to hedge against interest rate cut expectations and inflation risks. There are also strategists recommending constructing a hedge by betting on the rise of the breakeven inflation rate. A chief investment strategist warned that all sell signals have been triggered, and market breadth has deteriorated to historical extremes, but he believes that the real tipping point will be when the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield breaks 5%, which could replay the policy mistakes of the 1970s.

In such a market atmosphere, analysts pointed out that Ethereum has performed strongly recently, with prices breaking through $3600, driven mainly by three major factors: positive signals from the U.S. Congress's cryptocurrency legislative process; accelerated inflow of institutional funds through channels such as ETFs; and the decline of Bitcoin's market dominance, suggesting that Ethereum may lead in the upcoming "altcoin season." The analyst believes that Ethereum's strong DeFi and smart contract ecosystem provides solid long-term value support.

In terms of Bitcoin, the price oscillates between $115,000 and $123,000, with a large number of buy orders in the $114,000 to $116,000 range. If it breaks below, it may trigger stop-loss liquidations and drop to $112,000, while sell orders are piled up at $119,500 and above $120,000. Some analysts predict the cycle peak may appear in October in the range of $133,665 to $151,539 through complex Fibonacci analysis. Additionally, a quantitative model shows that for every increase of 10,000 BTC in ETF holdings, the price can rise by 1.8%, leading to an expectation that it may reach $140,000 in September.

After Ethereum breaks through the resistance zone of $3,250-$3,500, the short-term target points to $4,000, at which point $331 million in short positions may be liquidated. The current RSI of 84.38 indicates an overbought state, warning of a pullback risk. If the current support level is maintained, the price is expected to rise further; if it fails, it may retrace to the $2,950--$3,250 range to accumulate buying momentum again. Some analysts point out that ETH is testing the upper boundary of the $3,700-$3,800 channel, and breaking through $4,100 will confirm the acceleration of the bull market.

Over the weekend, a domestic public chain announced the launch of version 3.0 in August and jointly developed a blockchain SIM card, driving its token to rise by 150% in a single day to $0.25. In addition, a wallet integrated a new protocol after rebranding last week, achieving content assetization minting functionality, which stimulated the related token to rise by 77.7%.

Key Data

• Bitcoin: $118,604 (Year-to-Date +26.73%), Daily Spot Trading Volume $41.418 billion
• Ethereum: $3,773.44 (YTD +13.13%), daily spot trading volume is $54.025 billion
• Fear & Greed Index: 72 (Greed)
• Average GAS: BTC: 0.44 sat/vB, ETH: 0.59 Gwei
• Market share: BTC 60.1%, Ether 11.6%
• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 49.25%/50.75%
• Sector Performance: NFT sector rose by 6.73%; Meme sector rose by 5.32%
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 121,658 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of 356 million USD.

ETF Flows (as of July 18)

• Bitcoin ETF: +363 million USD
• Ethereum ETF: +$403 million

Today's Preview

• A trading platform will remove the seed tags for multiple tokens on July 21.
• Multiple projects will be launched or tokens will be unlocked soon.

Top 100 market cap biggest rise today: Conflux (CFX) rise 93.3%, dogwifhat (WIF) rise 15.3%, JasmyCoin (JASMY) rise 14.9%, Pyth Network (PYTH) rise 10.4%, SPX6900 (SPX) rise 9.7%.

Hot News

• The White House Digital Asset Market Working Group is expected to release its first crypto policy report on July 22.
• The Fed is holding a meeting on bank capital
• Whales made nearly 30 million dollars in profits from long positions on ETH and SOL in the past week.
• Ethereum rises to last December's high, with over 75,000 people liquidated in the cryptocurrency market in the past 24 hours.
• The Ohio Public Employees Retirement System increased its holdings of 21,499 shares of Strategy stock in the second quarter of this year.
• Analysis: Last week, some on-chain addresses accumulated 391,000 ETH, worth approximately 1.4 billion USD.
• In the past 7 days, the NFT trading volume rose by 29% to $159.6 million.
• A financial instrument platform plans to raise $40 million, with most of the funds intended for purchasing Bitcoin.