Pi Network: From Mobile Mining to Mainnet Launch, a Highly Controversial Crypto Assets Project

Pi Network is a new type of digital crypto assets project that focuses on low-threshold participation, allowing users to "mine" through a mobile application, significantly lowering the technical and cost barriers, enabling more ordinary people to participate in the crypto assets ecosystem.

However, this seemingly normal "coin circle" project is actually quite controversial. Since its establishment in 2019, Pi Network has long failed to launch its Mainnet, and mobile Mining remains in a "mining air" state. Its token acquisition mechanism is more focused on increasing one's mining share by recommending friends to use a registration code, which is more similar to a pyramid scheme rather than mining using consensus mechanisms like PoW, PoS, etc., that utilize blockchain technology.

After a six-year wait, Pi Network has finally announced the launch of the Mainnet, and several trading platforms have listed the token for trading. It seems that Pi is serious this time, so how should we value the Pi coin?

Total Supply and Circulation of Pi Coin

The Pi Network has not officially disclosed the final total supply cap of Pi coin, but based on community and white paper information, it is generally believed that the maximum supply of Pi coin is around 100 billion coins. This means that if each Pi coin is valued at 1 dollar, the fully diluted market cap (FDV) would reach 100 billion dollars. As of the end of 2024, Pi is still in the closed period of the Mainnet and has not fully opened for trading, so the actual circulating supply is limited. According to data from blockchain explorers:

• August 2023: Approximately 1.97 billion Pi coins migrated to the Mainnet (of which 1.29 billion coins were locked by users)
• September 2024: The total migrated supply on the Mainnet increased to approximately 4.07 billion coins (with 1.35 billion coins locked), a surge of 106.6% in just over a year.
• January 2025: The total migration on the Mainnet reached 5.56 billion coins, of which approximately 660 million are still in a locked state. In just three months, the supply increased by 36.6%.

Regarding the total supply, the Pi white paper mentioned that at the time of the open Mainnet, users may have accumulated between 10 to 20 billion PI coins. In other words, the actual circulating supply in the early stages may only be a small portion of the total, and most Pi coins will gradually be produced through Mining over time. This also means that the supply will be controlled in the short term, but there will be significant potential inflation pressure in the long term.

Market Demand and Potential User Data

Since the launch of the mobile Mining application by Pi Network in 2019, it claims to have attracted tens of millions of users globally. In terms of user base: according to the Pi team, there are over 60 million registered users worldwide. However, it is worth noting that only a portion of these are real users who have completed KYC verification. In 2023, Pi officials stated that about 12 million users have passed KYC verification. Even by early 2025, the on-chain data showed that the total number of Mainnet wallets was only about 9.11 million, accounting for only 15% of the claimed users.

This means that although the number of registered users is large, the proportion of those who are truly active and have completed the migration on-chain is limited.

In addition, the daily active usage can also reflect the actual demand. According to data from a blockchain explorer, the average daily active wallets on the Pi Mainnet is about 20,000, with a peak of approximately 42,000 reached in January 2025. Compared to the tens of millions of users claimed by Pi Network, this level of activity is relatively low.

Valuation Models and Possible Price Ranges

Based on the above information, we can attempt to establish several valuation models for Pi coin to estimate its price range. Common valuation approaches for Crypto Assets include "market capitalization" and "OTC price".

Market Cap:

Currently, the total supply of tokens is known to be 100 billion, with an estimated circulation of 10 billion:

• Benchmarking a well-known meme coin: Both have similar community-driven characteristics. If Pi can replicate the success of that coin, then based on its current market value of 40 billion USD, the value of Pi tokens could reach 4 USD.
• Market cap falls within the top 50: The current market cap of the coin ranked 50th is 2.7 billion dollars. If Pi can open and break into the top 50 in market cap, then the token price will be 0.27 dollars.
• Market cap falls within the top 100: The current market cap of the coin ranked 100th is 920 million USD. If Pi can open and break into the top 100 by market cap, the value of the Pi token could reach 0.092 USD.

OTC: Over-the-Counter (OTC) trading has always been the main way for Pi coin enthusiasts to exchange. In the absence of a public market, price discrepancies have emerged in different regions:

• In mainland China and some regions of Southeast Asia, there were early rumors that the private purchase price of Pi coin was around several yuan. The OTC acquisition price in the Taiwan market is approximately between 0.23 USD and 0.85 USD.
• In some foreign communities, there are people willing to privately trade small amounts of Pi at a valuation of $5-10, more so betting on the appreciation potential after it goes public. However, such private trades are fraught with fraud risks and are limited in quantity, and should not be regarded as mainstream quotes.
• Some merchants and users privately agree to accept Pi coin in exchange for goods or services, in order to lay out the Pi ecosystem in advance. This can be seen as an implicit quote in off-market applications, converting each Pi to a value between 1 to 3 dollars. However, this is more a consideration of merchants' marketing or support for the Pi community and does not necessarily represent their willingness to purchase Pi coins at this price in unlimited quantities.

The market valuation of Pi coin will depend on two major factors: the supply-demand game and confidence consensus.

• Supply Perspective: The initially limited circulation may drive up the price of Pi coin, but in the long term, the huge total supply (100 billion coins) is a sword hanging over our heads. If the application ecosystem cannot expand in sync to absorb this supply, the price will eventually face downward pressure. Therefore, the Pi project team may need to adopt measures such as controlling the inflation pace and increasing application demand to maintain the coin's value.
• Demand perspective: Hundreds of thousands to millions of active coin holders will be the cornerstone of Pi coin's value. After the exchange goes live, the behavior of this group of users (whether to hold and watch or to sell for cash) will directly impact the market capitalization trend. If the majority choose to continue holding, viewing Pi as a long-term asset, coupled with positive external capital inflow, Pi's market capitalization is expected to reach the ten billion dollar level, pushing the price into the mid-high range of $1-$3. Conversely, if there is a sell-off right after the launch, with supply exceeding demand, the market capitalization may only stop at the one billion dollar level or even lower, with the price falling back below $1.
• Market Positioning: If Pi Network can prove that it is not merely relying on a pyramid scheme-style growth, but rather is truly implementing blockchain technology and applications, then the market may assign it a higher valuation multiple (similar to the level of some well-known public chains). Otherwise, if negative rhetoric (pyramid scheme, lack of blockchain support, etc.) is validated, Pi coin may find it difficult to escape the fate of value shrinkage.

The valuation of Pi coin is chaotic, but what can be confirmed is that short-term fluctuations will be very intense. We recommend paying attention to the following indicators to assess the valuation trend of Pi coin:

• The trading volume and turnover rate in the first week of launch (reflecting market heat)
• Mainnet unlock progress (supply release rhythm )
• Pi ecosystem applications landing (determining long-term demand)

The most important thing is the overall market trend of crypto assets. In a bull market environment, speculative funds are abundant, and Pi coin can easily achieve a higher valuation; conversely, in a bear market, even the best themes struggle to avoid decline, and the recent lack of market liquidity has made the valuation situation less optimistic than before.

However, it is difficult to calculate the madness of human nature in valuation. What Pi Network is praised for is their community cohesion.

Without practical applications, the ability to "break out" relies on the power of word-of-mouth communication, which is quite similar to the composition of meme coins. The reason why Pi Network has such a strong community is that Pi coin has set up an invitation mechanism and built a hierarchical structure, allowing invitees to gain benefits (such as increasing their Mining speed) by attracting new users.

The profit structure like this has been tied to the dream of Pi Network for six years, allowing both the project and the community to remain stable, with a survival time longer than 95% of crypto assets projects. Most community members have become staunch believers, even claiming that after the mainnet launch, they will not sell a single coin but instead purchase more Pi coins. With a low initial circulation combined with the loyalty of the community, it is difficult to estimate on an emotional level how far Pi, which has been operating for six years, can take its market value. However, it can be anticipated that there will be significant fluctuations when the token is first launched.