Market Trends and Analysis

Politics and Macroeconomics

Trump recently stated that he may not seek a third term and hinted that current Vice President Vance is likely to become the Republican presidential candidate in 2028. He plans to decide on the new Federal Reserve board member candidates within this week while preparing to announce new tariff policies regarding drugs and chips.

On the economic front, former Treasury Secretaries have warned that the U.S. Treasury bond market faces multiple threats, including an unsustainable fiscal path and issues within the political system. After Trump fired the director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the market has raised doubts about the credibility of official data, particularly posing potential risks to the inflation-protected securities market. However, weak employment data has led Wall Street to broadly expect that the Federal Reserve will initiate interest rate cuts in the near future.

Digital Asset Market

The Web3.0 layout in Hong Kong is showing positive effects. Analysis indicates that Hong Kong-listed companies entering the Web3.0 field not only promote financial innovation but also optimize operational efficiency, attracting global capital and talent influx, laying the foundation for Hong Kong to build a mature digital asset ecosystem.

Bitcoin recently fell below the short-term support range, leading to a large number of leveraged long positions being liquidated. Analysts warn that the price may further dip to the $109,000 area. In the long term, some predictions suggest that Bitcoin's price peak could reach between $135,000 and $150,000 around September 2025.

The price of Ethereum has rebounded to around $3650, despite a large net outflow from ETFs, but on-chain data shows that institutions and large holders are still actively buying.

Token Market Dynamics

Pump.fun's trading volume and token minting numbers have surpassed Bonk.fun, with multiple projects in its ecosystem performing strongly. Tokens such as Fartcoin, TROLL, and PUMP are actively traded, with TROLL token's 24-hour increase approaching 100%. The MYX protocol has seen a significant rise recently, reaching an all-time high.

Regulatory Dynamics

A certain country's security department issued a warning about the risks of biometric data collection, describing it as highly consistent with the Worldcoin project, raising concerns.

Market Data

• Bitcoin price: $113,525, year-to-date increase of 21.98%
• Ethereum price: $3,582.39, up 8.91% year-to-date
• Market Fear and Greed Index: 54 (Neutral)
• Bitcoin market share: 61.1%, Ethereum 11.8%
• Total liquidation amount in 24 hours: 358 million USD

Future Outlook

• Linea on-chain DEX Etherex will launch REX
• Trump delays the effective date of reciprocal tariffs to August 7.
• Multiple projects will undergo token unlocks.
• Among the top 100 by market capitalization, Pump.fun, Saros, Curve DAO, and others performed outstandingly.

Overall, the market shows volatility, with both policy and technological factors influencing the price direction of digital assets. Investors need to closely monitor the macroeconomic situation, regulatory developments, and the progress of various projects.