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Lengthening cycles might actually play out this time.
Unlike the classic 4-year patterns, this cycle could stretch longer — and here’s why:
Previous bull runs were fueled by massive U.S. and global money expansion. But this time around, the U.S. likely won’t ramp up liquidity until Q4 2025.
If that’s the case, we could see a longer grind followed by a strong run-up and a blow-off top later than usual.
However, if the Fed pivots sooner, the traditional 4-year cycle could still hold.
So the real question is — is the 4-year cycle already breaking… or just taking its time?