🌍 08/04 Market Macro Observation

🧐TL;DR: BTC is consolidating around 114k, with the bears still in control; the RSI average has risen to 46.65, but altcoins are generally weak, and the short-term remains a tug-of-war between bulls and bears.

👉 Market Trend Analysis:
BTC dipped to a low of 112.8k yesterday and then rebounded, currently closing at 114.3k. Although it has stopped falling in the short term, the pressure is evident. The red circle on the chart (selling pressure) is still larger than the green circle (buying pressure), indicating that the rebound lacks sufficient capital support. The trading volume has decreased compared to the previous days, suggesting that capital is in a wait-and-see mode, and the market has entered a tug-of-war state.

👉 RSI Indicator:
The overall market RSI has risen to 46.65, slightly higher than yesterday's 37.59, indicating that the excessive selling pressure has eased. However, most mainstream altcoins are still below 50, lacking momentum. Some tokens like LTC, MAGIC, SYN, and AWE are in the overbought zone, reflecting concentrated speculation from short-term funds, but such anomalies may bring about the risk of a correction. The overall pattern still leans towards a weak rebound.

👉 Large Orders and Capital Flow:
Large transactions still show a conspicuous red circle, with continued selling pressure from bears. The net long position data stands at -53.1k, remaining sluggish; the net short position maintains around 69.2k, with bear positions still in control. The open interest/market cap ratio (OI/MC) remains stable at 0.04, indicating that leveraged funds have not increased their positions, and both bulls and bears are not fully engaged.

📌 Key Area Observation:

Support level: The 112.6k–113k area remains a recent defense line. If it is breached, it may trigger a drop to 110k or even 108k.

Resistance level: 114.5k–115k is a short-term resistance zone. If there is no significant breakout, the rebound is likely to struggle to continue.

These positions are also potential liquidation points, which can easily trigger amplified market movements.

Current Focus: The market is like a tense tug-of-war, with bulls temporarily stabilizing above 113k, but the rope is still being tightly tugged by bears. If it breaks above 115k, we can expect a wave of technical correction; if it falls below 112.6k, it may trigger a new round of panic selling.

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