Bitcoin and Ethereum face pressure from the CME gap fill. After a retracement, will it be able to start a new round of pump?

1. Market Observation

The core inflation data in the United States has been below expectations for five consecutive months, but there are differing views on the future trend in the market. Some believe that the impact of tariffs is lagging, and there may be greater price pressure in July and August; another view emphasizes companies' pricing restraint amid weak demand. This contradiction is also reflected within the Federal Reserve: the chairman hinted at possibly lowering the threshold for interest rate cuts, while a regional Fed president advocated for maintaining a tighter policy for a longer time. Currently, the Federal Reserve tends to remain cautious and emphasizes vigilance against misleading short-term data, reiterating the importance of central bank independence.

In terms of regulation, the U.S. Congress has accelerated the legislative process by establishing "Cryptocurrency Week," during which one bill will regulate the stablecoin market. This bill requires reserves to be in cash and short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, which not only standardizes the market but also achieves dual strategic goals: supporting compliant stablecoins and undermining competitors, while simultaneously creating significant demand for U.S. Treasuries. This shift in regulatory paradigm not only reduces policy uncertainty but may also strengthen Bitcoin's positioning as a digital gold asset allocation.

After Bitcoin reached a new high, it entered adjustment, with multiple analysts focusing on the repair of the CME futures gap, expecting the price to possibly retreat to the range of $113,800 to $117,000. Some believe that if the price cannot quickly fall through the current consolidation area, it may push Bitcoin back up to around $120,000. Additionally, some analysts pointed out that the market has not yet peaked, with the next key level at $136,000, and strong support in the range of $93,000 to $109,000.

Ethereum's market capitalization has surpassed 10%. Although its performance this year has been weaker than Bitcoin, the trends of stablecoins and tokenization are driving its demand growth. On the technical side, several analysts are focusing on its CME gap, believing that after filling the gap in the range of $2,830 to $2,925, Ethereum may break upward towards $3,200.

The altcoin market is showing a rotation of sectors: payment tokens are starting first, major coins are gaining momentum, and specific ecosystems and Layer 1 projects are forming a relay team. The heat of Chinese Meme narratives remains strong, with several related tokens reaching all-time highs.

2. Key Data

• Bitcoin: $117,798 (Year-to-date +26.05%), Daily trading volume $66.923 billion
• Ethereum: $117,798 (Year-to-date -5.91%), Daily trading volume $41.523 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 71 (Greed)
• Market Share: BTC 62.9%, ETH 10.2%
• 24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 49.4%/50.6%
• Sector rise: DeFi 5.98%, GameFi 4.52%
• 24-hour liquidation: 106,515 people, total amount 355 million USD

3. ETF Flows

• Bitcoin ETF: +$403 million, net inflow for 9 consecutive days
• Ethereum ETF: +$192 million, net inflow for 8 consecutive days

4. Today's Outlook

• A certain wallet will conduct the Hyperion (RION) Bonding Curve version TGE
• Eclipse will open ES token airdrop
• The U.S. House of Representatives Fundraising Committee held a hearing on digital asset tax policy.
• A trading platform will launch Caldera (ERA)
• Plasma: XPL public sale begins
• The Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book on economic conditions
• The President of the New York Federal Reserve delivered a speech on the U.S. economy and monetary policy.
• Multiple projects will undergo token unlocks.

5. Hot News

• Two multi-signature wallets collectively purchased 33,366 Ether, worth over 100 million USD.
• Movement completed the $MOVE buyback, with approximately 180 million tokens repurchased.
• Standard Chartered Bank has launched spot trading services for Bitcoin and Ether.
• Ondo Finance acquires Strangelove to accelerate RWA platform development
• SharpLink raised approximately $413 million, with some funds already invested in Ether.
• An institution reduced its holdings by 15,000 Ether through Wintermute.
• Pump.Fun is suspected of transferring 98,000 SOL to the buyback address.
• US June Core CPI Data Released