Crypto Market Weekly: Frequent Regulatory Developments, Emerging Stablecoins Attract Attention

Macroeconomic Environment and Market Overview

Recently, the economic growth in the United States has exceeded expectations, and inflation remains sticky. The market expects that the Federal Reserve may delay the timing of the first interest rate cut until September, with the total number of rate cuts for the year not exceeding two. Before inflation stabilizes and falls back to the 2% target, long-term Treasury yields may rise further to curb demand. As a result, the US stock market has seen significant adjustments, and the crypto market has fluctuated accordingly.

This week, Bitcoin showed a weak downward trend, with mainstream cryptocurrencies generally declining. The market hotspots are mainly concentrated in the Meme token sector, which has less upward resistance and lacks significant venture capital selling pressure. It is worth following that a former CEO of a trading platform is about to face a verdict, and the platform coin BNB/BTC exchange rate has broken through the monthly line. If the verdict is lenient, it may trigger significant fluctuations in the price of BNB.

Bitcoin Market Analysis

The fourth Bitcoin halving has been completed, and the new annual inflation rate has fallen to 0.85%, lower than gold's 2.3%. Unlike previous years, this year has seen over $12 billion in spot ETF inflows, while facing the highest interest rate environment in over 20 years, and approximately 94% of the total Bitcoin supply has been mined.

On-chain data shows that the stablecoin market cap has increased by 2%, indicating a positive long-term funding outlook. The MVRV-Z Score is at 2.3, which is in the middle phase, suggesting that the overall market is in a slight loss state. Institutional funds have shown a net outflow for two consecutive weeks, reflecting investors' concerns about the duration of the high-interest rate environment.

In the futures market, the funding rate is close to zero, indicating that the long and short forces are relatively balanced. The Bitcoin futures open interest has remained basically flat this week, with a long-to-short ratio of 1.7, showing that market sentiment is still leaning towards optimism.

Public Chain Ecosystem Development

This week's total locked value (TVL) increased to around $93 billion, with a growth rate of approximately 6.9%. Excluding the Bitcoin chain, the TVL of major public chains has generally risen. Ethereum and Base chains rose by 7%, TRON, Polygon, and Arbitrum chains all increased by about 5%, Solana chain rose nearly 11%, and BSC chain increased by 17%. Notably, the Merlin chain continues to be strong, rising another 22% this week, with a growth rate exceeding 2100% over the past month, and its total TVL surpassing $1 billion.

NFT Market Dynamics

The NFT market showed a moderate warming trend this week, with the floor prices of major blue-chip projects generally rising. BAYC increased by 13%, MAYC rose by 3%, Pandora went up by 14%, Space Doodles surged by 26%, and both Azuki and LilPudgys rose by 8%. However, CryptoPunks and Defrogs fell by 8% respectively.

In terms of trading volume, the overall market is still in a downward trend, but there has been a slight increase in the number of first-time and repeat buyers. Currently, the NFT market has not seen any new blockbuster projects, and the sluggish sentiment persists.

Summary

The crypto market has shown a trend of adjustment this week under macroeconomic pressure, but some sub-sectors such as Meme coins and emerging public chains remain active. The market reaction post-Bitcoin halving has been mild, with investors focusing more on the direction of Federal Reserve policies and regulatory dynamics. Although there are signs of recovery in the NFT market, overall activity still needs to improve. Market participants should continue to follow the global economic situation, changes in regulatory policies, and the potential impact of emerging technology applications on the industry.