That's why the Bitcoin cycle theory no longer works.

Kiyang Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant and a well-known cryptocurrency analyst, stated that the traditional theory of Bitcoin cycles is no longer relevant

By this, he acknowledged that his previous forecasts had become outdated. According to the analyst, significant changes have occurred in the market.

Earlier, Ki Yangga Zhu built his work scheme on two principles: buying when whales accumulate and selling when retail investors enter the market. These factors formed the basis of his past predictions, including a statement in March about the end of the bullish cycle.

However, with the changing market dynamics, he acknowledged that the theory no longer works. He apologized, expressing concern that his forecasts might have impacted someone’s investments.

The key change that made him reconsider the theory is related to the behavior of whales. Previously, they distributed bitcoin among retail investors, but now the old whales are selling to new long-term whales. This has led to an increase in the number of holders who now dominate over traders.

Institutional adoption of Bitcoin, according to the analyst, has exceeded the expectations of many crypto enthusiasts, creating a unique market environment that complicates comparisons with past market behavior patterns.

The charts show that since the beginning of 2023, retail investors have been selling BTC, and their assets have gradually decreased. At the same time, institutions, funds, and large wallets, including ETFs, have been actively accumulating bitcoin.

On-chain data signals that the market is currently far from the classic retail investor "frenzy" seen in previous cycles. This may indicate that "quiet" and "smart" money is on the scene. Most people are still watching from the sidelines.

Bitcoin: Holders among retail and institutional investors. Source: CryptoQuant.

Unfortunately, predicting anything in the new market conditions is becoming significantly more difficult. In previous cycles, investors identified bear markets by the panic among retail holders. How to act now is unclear. Their changes may become a problem for risk managers.

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