The Return of Gold: Gold Prices May Reach $8,900 by 2030

Gold is re-emerging as the core of the global financial system. As the political and economic situation continues to be turbulent, gold, as a counterparty risk-free and inflation-proof monetary asset, is becoming increasingly strategically significant. From the deindustrialization of the United States and uncontrolled fiscal deficits to the rise of non-state credit assets like Bitcoin, and the large-scale gold purchases by central banks, these trends together form the backdrop of the "gold bull market" pattern.

The current gold bull market is in its second phase, "public participation period", characterized by optimistic media coverage, increased trading volumes, and the launch of new products. Over the past five years, global gold prices have risen by 92%, while the real purchasing power of the dollar against gold has decreased by nearly 50%. Although gold has broken through the $3000 mark, it still represents a moderate increase compared to historical gold bull markets.

Geopolitical restructuring is one of the key factors supporting gold. The world is transitioning from a "dollar-centric" system to a new Bretton Woods system supported by "external currencies (, gold, and commodities )." Gold, as a neutral asset with no counterparty risk and high liquidity, is expected to become the anchor of the new monetary order.

Trump's policies also have a significant impact on gold. His trade reforms and dollar devaluation policies may lead to a slowdown in the U.S. economy, forcing the Federal Reserve to adopt a more aggressive easing of monetary policy. Fiscal policies in Europe, especially in Germany, have also undergone a 180-degree turn, abandoning fiscal conservatism. This "monetary climate change" is favorable to gold.

Central bank demand is another major pillar supporting gold. Since 2009, central banks have been net buyers in the gold market, and this trend has significantly accelerated in recent years. In 2024, gold's share in monetary reserves reached 22%, the highest level since 1997.

The continuous devaluation of fiat currency has also driven up gold prices. Since 1900, the M2 money supply in the United States has increased by 2333 times, while the population has only grown by 4.5 times. The growth of the money supply is a key long-term driver of gold prices.

The report proposes the concept of "shadow gold price," which is the theoretical gold price when the base money supply is fully backed by gold. According to this calculation, if 25% of the M2 of major currency regions is covered by central bank gold reserves, the gold price would reach $57,965.

The report forecasts that by the end of 2030, the baseline scenario for gold prices will be $4,800, while the inflation scenario will be $8,900. Currently, the price of gold has exceeded the mid-term target of $2,942 in the baseline scenario for the end of 2025.

Bitcoin, as a decentralized cryptocurrency, may also benefit from the restructuring of the world order. The report suggests that by the end of 2030, Bitcoin could reach 50% of gold's market value, which would require the price of Bitcoin to rise to around $900,000.

Despite a long-term optimistic outlook, the report also points out risk factors that could lead to short-term adjustments, including a decline in central bank demand, investors reducing positions, a decrease in geopolitical premiums, and a stronger-than-expected U.S. economy. In the short term, gold prices may pull back to around $2800.

Overall, the gold bull market has not yet ended and is currently in the mid-stage of public participation. As traditional safe-haven assets lose trust, gold is becoming the core of long-term investment strategies once again. In the context of global turmoil, gold is expected to regain its traditional role as a monetary asset, possibly appearing in the form of supranational settlement assets.