BTC weekly rise exceeds 10%, nearly $7 billion long term funds get on board

This week, BTC opened at $85177.33 and closed at $93780.57, rising 10.10% for the week with a fluctuation of 12.73%, achieving a three-week consecutive rebound, and the trading volume increased. On Monday, it strongly broke through the 120-day moving average, and thereafter, it operated above the moving average for the entire week, showing strong bullish sentiment.

The U.S. government continues to advance trade negotiations, with the White House consistently sending positive signals, but the other party's attitude remains vague, making the outcome of the negotiations unclear. Meanwhile, the U.S. President has made it clear that he will not dismiss the Federal Reserve Chairman, alleviating market concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to stabilization and rebound in the stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets.

Federal Reserve officials are releasing positive signals. Some officials have stated that if the economic situation changes, the Fed has the ability to act quickly, including accelerating interest rate cuts in the event of a severe deterioration in the labor market.

Recently, the performance of global markets, especially the US financial markets, fully reflects the irrationality of trade frictions and the huge impact on the world economy. The compromise measures taken by the US government and the Federal Reserve to respond to the turmoil in the financial markets confirm that politics, economics, and markets will still follow a rational path in the medium to long term.

However, the market rebound is mainly due to the temporary alleviation of concerns about trade frictions potentially triggering a market crash and economic recession. The future market trend will depend on whether the trade disputes can be resolved in time and whether the US economy is truly falling into recession. Based on this judgment, the ongoing disclosure of US stock first-quarter financial reports is particularly important.

Policy, Macroeconomic Finance and Economic Data

Senior officials of the U.S. government stated that trade negotiations are making good progress, especially the negotiations with China are also actively underway. However, the Chinese government stated that the two sides have not engaged in substantive negotiations.

Negotiations between countries such as Japan and South Korea with the United States are progressing relatively smoothly, with the possibility of reaching conditions favorable to the United States, which may set a precedent for other countries. However, the US-China negotiations have still not entered a substantive stage, and the second phase of the trade dispute has just begun, with a significant breakthrough still some distance away. This limits the time and space for a market rebound, making it difficult to be optimistic in the short term.

The speech of the Federal Reserve Chairman focused on the inflation and economic uncertainty brought about by trade policy, setting the tone for the upcoming May interest rate meeting, and reaffirming the independence of the Federal Reserve. He emphasized that policy will be data-driven, maintaining stable interest rates, and will not yield to political pressure to cut rates, but hinted that if inflation or employment data shows significant changes, policy adjustments may occur. Other Federal Reserve officials' speeches have emphasized a more "dovish" stance, suggesting a possible rate cut in June.

The latest data shows that the probability of a rate cut in June is 62.7%, which is a decrease compared to the previous two weeks.

The Federal Reserve's Beige Book released on April 23 indicates that 8 out of 12 Federal Reserve districts reported "little discernible change" in economic activity, with overall economic growth slowing. Businesses reacted strongly to tariff policies, with inflation expectations in several districts rising to 3.5% for 2025, and manufacturing activity further contracting. Consumer spending has grown moderately, but high prices and tariff expectations have begun to undermine consumer confidence. Employment levels remain generally stable, but hiring activity has weakened, with some regions reporting increased layoffs. Wage growth has slowed, but remains above pre-pandemic levels.

As the US government and the Federal Reserve adopt a more easing stance, market panic has alleviated. The US Dollar Index rebounded to 99.613 after dropping to 97.991. Treasury yields fell slightly, with the 2-year and 10-year yields closing at 3.7560% and 4.245%, respectively. Risk assets performed better, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounding by 6.73%, 4.59%, and 2.48%, respectively.

The price of gold fell back after reaching $3499.93 per ounce at the beginning of the week.

Selling Pressure and Sell-Off

With the significant price rebound, the on-chain selling volume has increased this week, mainly from short-term holders. The total on-chain selling volume for the week reached 197040.26 BTC, with short-term holders selling 190568.61 BTC and long-term holders selling 6471.65 BTC. The net outflow from exchanges surged to 62696.12 BTC, marking the largest single-week net outflow since this market cycle, which alleviated the market selling pressure and also indicated a strong enthusiasm among investors to get on board.

Long term holders increased their positions by over 120,000 this week, while another noteworthy group to pay attention to is the shark group (address clusters holding BTC between 100-1000), which added nearly 30,000 in a single week.

Capital Flow

As the Federal Reserve and government attitudes become more rational, there has been a significant inflow of funds into stablecoins and ETF channels this week, totaling nearly $7 billion.

In 7 trading days, there were net inflows on 6 days, indicating that long term funds are very actively getting on board. However, it should be noted that as the BTC price rebounds to around 95,000 USD, coupled with ongoing trade frictions and doubts about economic recession, and the most optimistic interest rate cuts still have to wait for a month, market divergences still exist, and short-term fluctuations are inevitable.

Cycle Indicators

According to relevant data, the BTC cycle indicator is 0.50, indicating that the market is in a rise continuation phase.