The market volatility intensifies, and the slowdown in capital inflow raises concerns.

Recently, the market has shown multiple growth signals, but there are also some structural risks. The overall macro environment is improving, with Trump's remarks on trade becoming more moderate, coupled with cooling inflation data, all of which have boosted market sentiment. However, the momentum of funds is weakening, as evidenced by the continued decline in inflows into stablecoins and ETFs.

Although the price of Bitcoin continues to rise, there are signs of cooling in capital inflows, off-exchange premiums, and ETF performance, and this divergence has increased the risk of a correction. In the current situation, investors should adopt a defensive strategy, closely monitor the support level of Bitcoin at $100,000 and the correction rhythm of Ethereum, and consider appropriately reducing positions in high Beta altcoins.

In terms of macroeconomics, fluctuations in trade relations and CPI data have triggered short-term market turmoil. Although the heat in the corporate bond market has supported stock market performance, it has also exacerbated the crisis in the U.S. Treasury market. The high leverage of consumers and businesses, coupled with the Federal Reserve's policy restrictions, has led to the emergence of systemic liquidity risks.

The fund flow analysis shows that this week the ETF inflow amount is $609 million, but the inflow rate continues to slow down. In terms of stablecoins, the total issuance this week is $877 million, with an average daily issuance of only $112 million, which is at a low level. The OTC premium indicator continues to decline, further confirming the cautious market sentiment.

The technical analysis of Bitcoin shows that the market is in a震荡上行区间, with an increased distribution of chips above $100,000. Ethereum's performance is relatively weak, as the ETH/BTC ratio broke down this week, indicating that funds are continuously flowing back to Bitcoin. However, the number of active addresses on the Ethereum chain has increased, which may indicate that a phase of底部 has been completed.

In terms of employment data, the ADP employment report has a certain impact on the price of Bitcoin. Statistics show that when ADP data significantly exceeds expectations, the probability of Bitcoin rising in the following 7 days is about 94%, with an average increase of 6.8%. However, this correlation is not a strong causal relationship, and actual trends need to be evaluated in conjunction with other macro policy signals and events within the cryptocurrency market.

On-chain data analysis shows that the total amount of stablecoins has slightly increased to $211.256 billion, but the issuance speed has significantly slowed, indicating that the market may be entering a wait-and-see phase. Bitcoin ETF inflows have declined for three consecutive weeks, with only a net inflow of $609 million this week, and the marginal impact of funds has significantly decreased. The OTC premium/discount continues to decline, diverging from price trends, reflecting a weakening inflow of OTC funds.

According to URPD data, the proportion of Bitcoin chips in the range of $101,800 to $104,000 has increased by 1.72%, indicating that a market consensus is forming in this area, which may become a short-term support or resistance level. The changes in the address structure of holders reflect a cautious attitude from large funds, while small and medium-sized funds still maintain confidence in the market, constituting important support for the current price range.

Technical analysis shows that the market has been consolidating in the current range for nearly 8 days, and the 4-hour indicators suggest a possibility of further upward movement. However, considering the recent divergence in funding data, without significant positive news, the market may experience a weakening of momentum after the next upward move.

In summary, the market is at a critical moment, and investors should remain vigilant, closely monitor changes in various indicators, and manage risks effectively.