Cross Token Value Analysis: Decoding the Potential of a Circulating Market Capitalization Aiming for $200 Million

Written in advance: The cross project has been discussed a lot recently due to its steadily rising price. As an experienced analyst, after personally testing the project, I have written this research report on the project in plain language.

1. Analysis of Technical Advantages - Innovators of Web3 Games
The rise of Cross is highly compatible with its position in the Web3 gaming track. As a Layer 1 blockchain gaming platform compatible with Ethereum, its mainnet has been operating stably, providing four major innovations for the underlying support of blockchain games:
--Supports cross-chain asset interoperability, enabling asset communication across public chains such as ETH and BSC, which means you can instantly transfer game items purchased on Polygon into other chains' games.
--Developers can quickly issue game tokens based on a plug-and-play SDK, which significantly lowers the development threshold. Well-known IPs such as Ragnarok: Monsterworld have already integrated into the ecosystem, forming a closed loop of "development-issuance-trading".
-- The single-chain TPS can reach 5000+, and the transaction confirmation time is <1 second, which is already quite an astonishing existence at present;
--Low gas fees allow many blockchain game players not to be deterred by the high gas fees of eth.

2. Token Economic Model - Dual Token Economic Model and Breaking the "Cutting Leeks" Model
--First, the total supply of the tokens is locked at 1 billion, adopting a fair issuance mechanism with zero VC participation, avoiding control by giants and providing stability expectations for long-term investors and institutional partners.
--Secondly, the unique dual-token functional isolation model achieves an ecological closed loop: CROSS tokens are used for network governance, ecological construction incentives, community voting, etc.; in-game tokens carry tasks such as item trading.
-- Finally, the token features a "buyback-burn-staking" mechanism, where 50% of the transaction fees are burned, and 5% of the game revenue is automatically repurchased, avoiding inflation and ensuring the scarcity of the token.
--In addition, the project received strategic investment from Nexus, a listed company on the Korea KOSDAQ, whose layout in the stablecoin field provides Cross with fiat currency channel support.

3. Your favorite K-line analysis
Based on the market data as of July 8, Cross presents a typical bullish arrangement characteristic:
--On the 4-hour chart, after more than a day of selling pressure following the listing on CEX, the price started to rise from around 0.045 and is currently in a D-wave correction of a five-wave pattern. If it pulls back to near the MA5 moving average, it would be a good entry point.
--On the daily chart, the bullish candlestick body continues to expand: among the K-lines in the past 7 days, 6 days closed as bullish candlesticks, with a single-day increase of 26.95% on July 4, and the closing price broke through the key resistance level of 0.07 USD. This "ladder-style upward movement" pattern indicates that the bullish forces are in absolute control.
--On the moving average system, bullish divergence: the 5-day moving average (0.061 USD), 10-day moving average (0.058 USD), and 20-day moving average (0.055 USD) form a perfect golden cross, and the slope of the short-term moving averages exceeds 45 degrees, indicating strong upward momentum.
--In terms of trading volume, it was a perfect match: on July 5th, the 24-hour trading volume reached 11.04 million USD, increasing by 51.72% compared to the previous day, with a turnover rate of 51.72%. This positive cycle of "price increase and volume increase" confirms the continuous inflow of funds.

IV. Capital Support: Backed by Invisible Capital Tycoon?
--Strategic Investor Endorsement:
Henry Chang (founder of WEMIX)'s deep involvement brings operational experience from MIR4 (with up to 1.4 million online players) to the project. His led Nexus Capital has pledged to provide a $100 million ecosystem fund to support game developers on Cross.
A leading domestic Alpha platform has listed Cross as the first Web3 game token project, not only providing liquidity support but also attracting over 500,000 early users through point airdrops. This "exchange + project party" joint operation model significantly improves user retention.
--Monopoly advantage of IP resources:
Signed Faker (the first three-time champion in esports history) to release League of Legends themed NFTs, expected in 2025
Q3 launch. Referring to the NFT trading scale of NBA Topshot, this series is expected to bring more than $20 million in daily trading volume to Cross.

5. Circulating market capitalization forecast:
--1. Horizontal comparison based on similar tokens:
As a layer 1 game ecosystem token, taking the similar token sand as an example, the current circulating market capitalization has reached 600 million dollars. In contrast, cross currently has a circulating market capitalization of 28 million and a diluted market capitalization of 80 million, which is obviously low.
      --2. Quantitative derivation: This is what I learned from a friend in the fund industry.
User Growth Model: The current number of holding addresses is not disclosed, but referring to the MIR4 user base (1.4 million), it is assumed that Cross can attract a conversion rate of 5% by the end of 2025, resulting in 70,000 active users. Based on an average holding of 300 USD, this will bring a market capitalization increase of 21 million USD.
Trading volume premium: The current 24-hour transaction amount is 11.04 million USD, annualized to 4 billion USD. It can be deduced that the base market capitalization should be 8 million USD. Considering Cross's high growth potential, a 2x premium is applied, resulting in a reasonable valuation of 16 million USD.
Ecological value reassessment:
Game token issuance: Assuming that by the end of 2025, there will be 20 games issuing tokens on Cross, based on each game
The play raised $5 million, which will lock in a token value of $100 million.
NFT transaction fee: Based on 50,000 NFT users, an average annual transaction amount of 1,000 USD per person, and a rate of 2.5%
Calculating, the annual income reaches 12.5 million USD. Referring to OpenSea's market capitalization/revenue ratio (50 times), it corresponds to a valuation of 625 million USD, calculated at a 20% equity share, contributing 125 million USD in market capitalization.
Comprehensive calculation: Base market capitalization (160 million USD) + ecological premium (125 million USD) + user growth (21 million USD) = 306 million USD
With a market capitalization of less than 30 million right now, are you still wasting your time reading my article? Hurry up!

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