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US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) ignite the market! No hope for a rate cut in July, the best trading strategy before September is exposed!
Last night's US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) completely shattered the market's hopes for a rate cut in July, and the Federal Reserve's hawkish signals have left bulls utterly disheartened. However, strangely, the market surged violently despite the bad news—what hidden secrets lie behind this?
1. The Truth Behind the Surge: A Short Squeeze, Not a Trend Reversal
Yesterday's surge was not a sign of a bullish market, but rather a result of excessively crowded short positions, with the main players taking the opportunity to liquidate and harvest! Data shows that nearly 70% of contract traders were betting on a decline, leading to a brief spike in prices. But remember, this is just a "liquidation game," not the actual start of a bull market!
2. September is the key! There must be a deep correction before the interest rate cut.
History does not lie: Before the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, the market often experiences a final wave of consolidation. The probability of a rate cut in July is zero, and funds will not rashly push the market up; the real trend will have to wait until at least September. Before that, any rise is an opportunity to short!
3. My trading strategy: low leverage + phased layout
- Bitcoin (BTC): The volatility is relatively stable, but caution is still needed, 5x leverage is sufficient.
- Ethereum (ETH) + Altcoins: Meme coins are hard to change their nature, often experiencing wild fluctuations. Low leverage is the key to survival!
- Short position layout: First, test with a small position. If it continues to rise, gradually add to the position to lower the average price, never go all in!
4. The bloody lesson: high leverage = suicide, stable profits are the way to go.
I once gambled with 50x leverage, and as a result, ETH plummeted by 300 points in a day, directly leading to liquidation! Now I only dare to use 5x, although it earns slowly, at least I can survive. Remember: not losing money = making money, stable profits = top experts!
5. What should we do now?
- Short-term: Beware of false signals, set up short positions at highs (low leverage!).
- Long-term: Be patient and wait for the interest rate cut signal in September, then buy the dip after the correction is in place!
Conclusion: The market is brewing a storm, and July-August will be the golden window for bears! Are you ready?
(If this content is helpful to you, please like and share it to help more friends avoid traps!)
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