#Crypto Market Rebound#  Bitcoin enters “cautious optimism” territory: Analysts target $200,000 by year-end.

Bitcoin’s supply is 98 percent profitable. Data supports bullish sentiment but warns of volatility and potential price corrections.

Analysts predict BTC could reach $200,000 by 2025, but that target requires sustained demand.

Bitcoin (BTC) price predictions of $200,000 by the end of 2025 are increasingly common. The increase in profitability reflects rising optimism, but also carries the risk of a correction in the short term.

Bitcoin’s supply in profit jumps to 98 percent

BTC’s supply in profit rose from 87 percent to 98 percent between June 22 and Sunday, according to the on-chain data provider. As of Tuesday, around 96.7% of the entire Bitcoin supply was in profit, which is close to the upper band as shown in the chart below.

Historically, such high levels tend to lead to market price volatility as the probability of profit-taking increases. This reflects a cautious bullish sentiment regarding price corrections.

Bitcoin rally ‘vertical momentum’ slows: ETF inflows continue but selling pressure increases

For example, between January and April, the BTC price fell from around $109,000 to $74,000. This decline came after Bitcoin’s profit-to-supply ratio rose to 98.8 percent on January 21.

Profitability data reflects optimistic, albeit cautious, market conditions. For example, Bitcoin’s realized profit/loss ratio has increased from 1.1 to 2.8 since June 22, exceeding the high-band threshold of 2.4 with a 156.4 percent increase.

This “reflects strong market confidence, but could increase the risk of profit-taking and exhaustion if price momentum declines,” the analysts said in their latest report.

“The market appears to have entered a cautiously optimistic regime, with strong positioning and renewed accumulation from institutional players,” they added.

“Continued demand and broader market confidence are essential for this rally to continue.”

Bitcoin set for “explosive” breakout to $200,000

In November 2022, Bitcoin bounced off the bottom of the bear market at $15,500 to its current $107,000 level, rising 590%. This price action has formed a channel with higher highs and lows on the weekly timeframe, according to analysts Stockmoney Lizards.

“Bitcoin is about to break out of a multi-year channel,” the analyst wrote in a post.

The accompanying chart shows the price attempting to break out of the upper trendline. Stockmoney Lizards has set a short-term target of $140,000 and a year-end target of $200,000.

“The next move will be explosive.”

This view is consistent with the analyst’s previous target of $200,000 in 2025, which was given after the monthly Optimized Trend Following (OTT) bands were broken. The analyst suggests that this target could extend to $250,000 in 2026.

Analyst Mags, on the other hand, says that a breakout of the same upper trendline as Stockmoney Lizards could “trigger a massive bull run.” Mags’ short-term target is $155,000, which is the 2.618 Fibonacci level.

The $200,000 Bitcoin price prediction, in particular, is becoming an increasingly popular target for the second half of 2025. For example, Sina predicts that BTC could reach between $130,000 and $200,000 in the fourth quarter of 2025 based on a power law model.

He noted that the falling Dollar Index triggered by US President Donald Trump’s trade policies could push BTC to $200,000.

It is said that increasing institutional demand through spot Bitcoin ETFs and companies holding Bitcoin treasuries could push BTC to $200,000 by the end of 2025