It's the weekend gathering today, I had a drink with my fren, and we talked about the crypto world.

During the meal, there was a friend who is a teacher. She finally opened up to consult me about Bitcoin. I asked her why she was interested now, and she said that two of her colleagues had entered the crypto world and often discussed it privately. They used to not care much about international affairs, but now they are watching the fighting in the Middle East and Trump's every move.

I was curious and asked her, are they both making money? One made money, and one lost money. The one who made money bought Bitcoin, which went up 60%, while the one who lost money reportedly bought Ethereum and only did so at the end of the year, and by now has lost almost half. A bit tipsy, she straightforwardly asked me in front of everyone, how much did you make? Is there still a chance to get in now?

I shook my head and sighed, it's hard, didn't make any money, I have both of what you said, and it's not fun now, the crypto world has been messed up by Trump.

The reason I don't want to talk too much with my teacher fren is that I understand her family situation quite well. Not going into depth about the crypto world is also a form of protection for her. Personally, I believe that the current crypto world is not suitable for everyone to participate in, especially for enterprises and institutions, as well as the relatively stable middle class. First, their information is relatively closed off, and the operation characteristics of the circle inherently resist high-risk investments, particularly those industries that have a somewhat fringe nature. Second, their work emphasizes political correctness, just like the apps starting with "learning" and "anti-fraud" in their phones, which have already restricted her access to information about the crypto world. Third, looking at the composition of their family economic structure, they have both gotten used to a stable salary life. Having been immersed in the education circle for twenty years since graduation, they are relatively unfamiliar with the field of risk investment. If they enter our circle, I worry it might disrupt their life trajectory.

I have always believed that the crypto world is a high-risk, highly volatile market filled with traps and particularly tormenting to human nature. Ordinary people entering this circle, whether playing spot or contracts, unless they have high industry knowledge and financial investment experience, 80% of ordinary people will actively go through a growth process of spending money to buy lessons. The teacher is a high-level intellectual, but that does not mean she will possess the wisdom and measure to make money here.

On the way home, another fren of mine told me that this is also right, after all, the returns in the crypto world are so poor this year, and in the future, we don’t even know if there will still be any enthusiasm in the secondary market. The dividends for those who hoard coins have already disappeared, and most remaining contract gamblers are likely to see the future crypto world as a legal licensed online casino. I remained silent, knowing he is also a hoarder who doesn’t touch contracts, still holding onto EOS until today, which is now A. An investment of over 300,000 is now down to over 10,000. Sporadic news from foreign media still gives him hope, and he believes that if he holds for 5 to 10 years, it will eventually reach 500 after three waves.

We have all once owned BTC, but we inexplicably believed another story and foolishly gave away our chips. EOS is our common pain, the only difference is that I chose to cut my losses and find a way back to BTC, while he still insists on holding. Since 2024, BTC has repeatedly hit new highs, while his so-called belief still lingers without progress, even falling to a historical low. Our experiences should be a reflection of most old investors; in fact, many veteran players have not earned life-changing wealth in the crypto world, mostly just ending up with a mess and leaving quietly, or living silently in the market.

Tonight, I don't know why I can't sleep and keep tossing and turning. So, I got up to type on the keyboard and chat with everyone about a topic: the myths and truths behind the risks in the crypto world between spot and contracts.

I want to ask everyone a question first: for an ordinary person, which carries a greater risk, contracts or spot trading?

Many people may not have thought deeply about it and would definitely respond that contract risks are high. In fact, in my current understanding, contracts are just difficult to make money with. For most ordinary players, contracts actually do not carry much risk compared to spot trading. Yes, you heard it right, this conclusion is what I tell friends with normal logical thinking, excluding pure gamblers.

People always think that contract trading is highly risky, but in fact, they confuse the concepts of "difficult to make money" and "easily losing everything." I have always emphasized that contracts are not suitable for beginners and most casual players because it is very hard to make money and extremely easy to incur losses due to price spikes. However, in spot trading, the risk of losing principal is actually higher, which is a significant realization I have had this year.

Let me organize my thoughts from my industry perspective. Think about it, in reality, are there more people who go bankrupt from gambling or from starting a business? Suppose you have a friend who is a teacher and has 500,000 in savings that she can invest. If she chooses to go to Macau for a few nights, as a normal adult, she wouldn’t put all her money into playing blackjack, right? But if someone tells her, "Investing money to open a Mixue Ice City will definitely be profitable," she might grit her teeth and take out all her savings.

In today's society, there are actually far more people who lose everything due to failed investments and entrepreneurship than those who go bankrupt from gambling. Why is that? Because subconsciously, people believe that starting a business is a legitimate path, while gambling is a speculative activity. This bias is the culprit that leads us to misjudge risks. Returns are linked to risks, and many people never consider the overall risk issue.

The same reasoning applies when we choose a trading track; most players opt for spot trading. This is because it is said that spot trading is a legitimate avenue, while contracts are speculative behavior. Looking at the cases of losing money in the market, those who trade contracts do indeed face liquidation, but typically they only lose a few thousand to tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands, which is akin to getting slapped by the market. It hurts, but they can recover. Those with a higher understanding usually stop after the pain. However, it is different for those trading altcoin spot; many people hold onto the mindset of "HODL for a bull market" or "earn passively," even if the altcoins they hold keep dropping, they comfort themselves that this is a long-term value investment. Some faith-driven players buy more as the price drops, and the more they buy, the more it drops. Eventually, when they calculate, after a few years they find losses of hundreds of thousands, even millions is quite common. In fact, the real losses suffered by spot traders are much greater than those of contract traders.

Is this a real phenomenon? From the comments in the comment section, it indeed is. Behind this is actually a common flaw in human nature: people often develop excessive fear of intuitive and dramatic risks, while lacking vigilance against gradual and hidden risks. The occurrence of small risks often happens because one is unaware of the overall risk. Many people make decisions based only on what others say, leading to emotional judgments. Just like a plane crash, although the probability is low, when it happens, it makes headlines, scaring many people from flying; yet smoking and drinking, which slowly harm health, are things you know are bad in the long run, but people don't take them seriously. A large liquidation in contracts is like a plane crash, scary but uncommon; however, being trapped in spot trading until it goes to zero is like smoking, gradually depleting your health without you realizing it.

I don't know if this analogy is correct, perhaps I should give some real examples. Many people see their altcoins drop 90% from a high point and think this should be the bottom, but who knows that at this price, it can still drop another 90%. Yes, I experienced this in 20-21, and it wasn't just one coin. I have mentioned this several times in my updates, EOS, BTM, AE, DBC, NBOT....... they didn't return to the peaks of 1718 during the last bull market. Now take a look at what their prices are.

Is the heat of the AI track really something that has just emerged now? Has the concept of DEPIN really only started to exist last year? Actually, it’s not. It has been around since 2018, and some of the coins mentioned above are from these tracks. This kind of neologism movement is just an old wine in a new bottle, a way to trick the retail investors with a different phrase. Just like new productive forces, to put it simply, it’s essentially about what you should contribute, you should contribute what is needed.

These bloody lessons have already played out twice, yet none of us has taken the time to summarize and reflect. A year later, I bring this issue up again because, as the market stands now, I see some friends in the comments section gradually becoming numb during this prolonged decline, possibly holding onto coins that are gradually approaching zero without realizing it, repeatedly missing opportunities to cut their losses. They may have gone from initial confidence and expectation to current self-delusion, fantasizing that one day a rate cut bull market will rescue them, or even break new highs.

Except for a few coins, I personally feel that a large-scale altcoin season is very difficult now. This isn't a judgment I've just made today; it became even more certain after the market finished last year. If we could fast forward to June 2026 and look back, perhaps some frens would only be willing to admit the truth once they see the outcome. Holding spot, which seems like a stable investment approach, may instead lead to massive losses far exceeding expectations.

The bull market may soon come to an end, so don't treat spot trading like a lottery. Any funds that exceed your capacity will increasingly distort your mindset as time goes on, especially those that involve leveraged investments. In addition to losing your principal, you will incur huge interest costs, time costs, psychological costs, and opportunity costs. These abysses are not something that an average person can easily climb out of.

Don't fall for the old saying, no tears until you see the coffin.