BTC -USD 24 h Technical Outlook

1. Bullish and Bearish Background and Price Structure

| Level | Key Resistance | Key Support | Pattern & Remarks | | ---- | ----------------------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------- | -------------------------- | | 4 h | $107,000-108,000 (upper boundary of descending channel + upper boundary of BB) | $104,300 (dynamic support at 20 EMA) | Entering "flag" consolidation after V-shaped reversal | | 1 h | $106 900 (yesterday's high) | $105 800 (VWAP equilibrium zone) | Low "moving average bullish arrangement" | | Daily | $110,100 (previous high) | $100,000 (sentiment anchor & key psychological level) | Still within the March uptrend |

Interpretation: The price has reestablished itself above the 20/50/100/200 EMA four-line cluster, showing a typical EMA-ribbon compressed bullish expansion. At the 4h level, $107 K is simultaneously the upper boundary of the descending channel and the upper boundary of the Bollinger Bands, becoming a "bull-bear watershed" in the short term.

2. Core Indicator Reading

| Indicator (4 h) | Current Value / Status | Key Points | | ------------------------------- | ---------------------------------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------------- | | RSI(14) | 73-84 range; back to overbought | Momentum is strong, but there are concerns of bearish divergence | | MACD | The Histogram turns from negative to positive, DIFF≈DEA | Golden cross above the zero line is expected, if confirmed with volume, it will be regarded as a signal for continued rise | | Bollinger Bands (4 h) | Bandwidth is sharply expanding; price is touching the upper band | This belongs to the Bollinger squeeze → expansion second phase, and volatility is expected to continue rising | | EMA-Ribbon | 20 EMA=$104,342; 50 EMA=$103,850 | Bullish Moving Average Arrangement; 20 EMA is the "Momentum Check Level" | | Daily RSI | 53.7 | Neutral to strong; still has upward potential |

Professional Tip: The 4h RSI has formed a triple divergence prototype. If the price creates a new high while RSI does not follow, it may indicate buying accumulation signs at high levels or transition to consolidation digestion.

3. Future 24h Trading Script

| Scenario | Trigger Conditions | Goals / Risks | Strategic Approach | | -------------------- | ------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------- | ----------------------------- | | Continuation Breakout | 4 h close≥$108 K and MACD golden cross volume | Upward**$109.8 K → $111.9 K**(Previous High & 1.618 Fib) | Go long and follow, stop loss 20 EMA-$104 K | | False breakout pullback | The high does not stand firm $107 K, and the RSI top divergence confirms | Drawdown**$104.3 K (20 EMA) → $102 K** | Reducing positions on high or short positions, pay attention to the funding rate | | Continuation of Fluctuation | Price converges in the $105.5-$107 K range | Ends in a closing line shape | High sell and low buy within the range, waiting for direction selection |

Quantitative Perspective: The current funding rate for perpetual contracts has slightly increased for long positions. If it exceeds 0.05% and does not break through, it is likely to trigger a long-squeeze; conversely, if the rate falls back or becomes negative along with a volume breakout, it often signals a short-cover rally.

4. Market Risk Control Attention

1. Geopolitical news impulses: Progress or sudden escalation of the ceasefire in the Middle East may trigger instantaneous fluctuations of over $1K during the U.S. trading session.
2. ETF net inflow: If there is a single-day inflow of >$300 M in the evening, it can be regarded as an endorsement of quantity and energy, and the probability of breakthrough increases.
3. CME Wednesday Gap: This Monday, there was an unfilled gap at $101.2-$103 K. If there is a drop during the day, one should be wary of the "gap attracting effect."

5. Conclusion

Combining EMA-ribbon bullish arrangement, MACD potential zero golden cross and 4 h bandwidth expansion, the short-term is still biased upward, but RSI extreme value + upper channel band gives an overheating warning. In terms of operation, the homeopathic idea of "breakthrough-stepping back confirmation and then adding positions" can be adopted; If the momentum is exhausted, quickly cash out the floating profit or short hedge.

This analysis is based on public market conditions and technical factors and does not constitute investment advice. Please strictly control risks in leveraged trading.