This famous trader believes that the altcoin season is just a week away.

After a long wait and accumulation, signs of the beginning of the altcoin season are becoming increasingly clear. According to famous trader Rogue Crypto, the market is at a major turning point as the total market capitalization has reached 3 trillion USD, and Bitcoin has hit a peak in the past 7 weeks at 94,600 USD. This movement could be a signal that the altcoin season is just a week away.

1. Economic – Political Context: A Headwind Turning into a Tailwind?

Rogue Crypto asserts that the market is emerging from the "shakeout" phase – a period that discourages retail investors, preparing for a new growth cycle. Notably, this turning point comes from the complex developments in U.S. politics and economics.

President Donald Trump is putting pressure on the global economy through new tariff policies, particularly in trade negotiations with China. These moves, although causing disruptions in the short term, may force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to lower interest rates, injecting more liquidity into the economy to stabilize the market. In the context of bond yields exceeding 4.4%, a weakening retail sector, and increasing risk of economic recession, the Fed's actions could become a strong catalyst for the crypto market.

2. The dominance of Bitcoin is declining: Opportunity for altcoin?

One of the key technical indicators that Rogue Crypto monitors is the Bitcoin dominance index (BTC.D) – which shows the market capitalization ratio of Bitcoin compared to the entire crypto market. Historically, whenever this index peaks around 70%, Bitcoin tends to enter a correction phase, creating opportunities for capital to flow into altcoins.

Currently, this index is fluctuating at 64.5%, indicating that Bitcoin may still have room for price increases. However, once BTC peaks and starts to correct, that could be the starting point for the altcoin season, similar to what happened in the cycles of 2017 and 2020.

3. M2 Money Supply – The Flow of Funds Awaiting to Enter the Market

Rogue also emphasized the importance of the M2 money supply – representing the total amount of cash, deposits, and highly liquid assets in the economy. When M2 increases, it is often a sign of excess liquidity and a trend toward speculation in risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.

If the Fed is truly forced to lower interest rates and loosen monetary policy under political pressure, the additional money pumped in could flow into the crypto market, creating conditions for a strong growth – especially for altcoin.

4. Altcoin Season Index: Not yet fully an altcoin season

However, not all indicators agree with the optimistic outlook. According to the Altcoin Season Index, it is currently still Bitcoin season. To truly transition to altcoin season, at least 75% of the top 50 altcoins must outperform Bitcoin over a 90-day period. The current number? Only 18 altcoins have achieved that.

Altcoin season index | Source: blockchaincenterThis means that the altcoin market has not yet truly entered a strong growth phase – but is approaching the activation threshold.

The altcoin season may be approaching very soon – but that doesn't mean everything is safe. Investors need to be wary of macro volatility and technical signals, especially the movements of the Fed and changes in Bitcoin's dominance rate. However, if history repeats itself and Rogue Crypto is correct, 2025 could mark a significant turning point for altcoins – a new spring in the long-term cycle of the crypto market.

Disclaimer***:** This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Investors should conduct thorough research before making decisions. We are not responsible for your investment decisions*.

Lilly