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The independence of the Fed is under follow, Ethereum has strongly broken through 3600 US dollars.
Market Watch: Fed Independence in Focus, Ethereum Rises Strongly
The market is closely watching the potential challenges to the independence of U.S. monetary policy. The focus is on the possible impact on or replacement of Fed Chairman Powell, which is seen as a potential threat to the foundation of the Fed's independence. Analysts are concerned that if the Fed's independence is compromised, it may prioritize debt costs over inflation targets, leading to the risk of long-term inflation expectations spiraling out of control. Although potential successors emphasize their commitment to maintaining independence, the market believes that once the chairman can be easily replaced, the credibility of the successor will be significantly undermined.
Wall Street quickly reacted, resulting in the "Powell hedge" strategy. Some analysts suggested buying short-term government bonds and selling long-term government bonds to steepen the yield curve, in order to hedge against interest rate cut expectations and inflation risks. There are also strategists recommending constructing a hedge by betting on the rise of the breakeven inflation rate. A chief investment strategist warned that all sell signals have been triggered, and market breadth has deteriorated to historical extremes, but he believes that the real tipping point will be when the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield breaks 5%, which could replay the policy mistakes of the 1970s.
In such a market atmosphere, analysts pointed out that Ethereum has performed strongly recently, with prices breaking through $3600, driven mainly by three major factors: positive signals from the U.S. Congress's cryptocurrency legislative process; accelerated inflow of institutional funds through channels such as ETFs; and the decline of Bitcoin's market dominance, suggesting that Ethereum may lead in the upcoming "altcoin season." The analyst believes that Ethereum's strong DeFi and smart contract ecosystem provides solid long-term value support.
In terms of Bitcoin, the price oscillates between $115,000 and $123,000, with a large number of buy orders in the $114,000 to $116,000 range. If it breaks below, it may trigger stop-loss liquidations and drop to $112,000, while sell orders are piled up at $119,500 and above $120,000. Some analysts predict the cycle peak may appear in October in the range of $133,665 to $151,539 through complex Fibonacci analysis. Additionally, a quantitative model shows that for every increase of 10,000 BTC in ETF holdings, the price can rise by 1.8%, leading to an expectation that it may reach $140,000 in September.
After Ethereum breaks through the resistance zone of $3,250-$3,500, the short-term target points to $4,000, at which point $331 million in short positions may be liquidated. The current RSI of 84.38 indicates an overbought state, warning of a pullback risk. If the current support level is maintained, the price is expected to rise further; if it fails, it may retrace to the $2,950--$3,250 range to accumulate buying momentum again. Some analysts point out that ETH is testing the upper boundary of the $3,700-$3,800 channel, and breaking through $4,100 will confirm the acceleration of the bull market.
Over the weekend, a domestic public chain announced the launch of version 3.0 in August and jointly developed a blockchain SIM card, driving its token to rise by 150% in a single day to $0.25. In addition, a wallet integrated a new protocol after rebranding last week, achieving content assetization minting functionality, which stimulated the related token to rise by 77.7%.
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Top 100 market cap biggest rise today: Conflux (CFX) rise 93.3%, dogwifhat (WIF) rise 15.3%, JasmyCoin (JASMY) rise 14.9%, Pyth Network (PYTH) rise 10.4%, SPX6900 (SPX) rise 9.7%.
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