New Era of Stablecoin Regulation: Compliance Pathways and Growth Prospects

Recently, the United States and Hong Kong have successively introduced legislation related to stablecoins, marking the entry of the global digital asset market into a new growth cycle driven by regulation. These regulations not only fill the gap in stablecoin regulation but also provide a clear Compliance framework for the market, including asset segregation, redemption guarantees, and anti-money laundering requirements, effectively reducing systemic risks.

This article will deeply analyze the core content of the two regional bills and, combined with quantitative predictions, look forward to the growth trajectory of compliant US dollar stablecoins in the next decade and its impact on the blockchain ecosystem.

1. US Stablecoin Bill: Growth Drivers and Quantitative Forecasts

The U.S. "GENIUS Act" was passed in the Senate in May 2025, establishing a detailed regulatory framework for stablecoin issuers. The act requires issuers to hold at least 1:1 high liquidity dollar assets as reserves, undergo regular audits, and comply with anti-money laundering and customer identity verification requirements. The act also prohibits stablecoins from offering interest, restricts foreign issuers from entering the U.S. market, and clarifies the legal positioning of stablecoins.

The implementation of this legislation is expected to have a profound impact on the global crypto market:

1. Promote the issuance of US debt and strengthen the international settlement position of the dollar.
2. Attract more financial institutions and technology companies to enter the stablecoin field, promoting innovation in payment systems.
3. It may raise issues of international regulatory coordination.

A well-known investment bank predicts that under clearer regulations, the global stablecoin market value will rise from $230 billion in 2025 to $1.6 trillion in 2030. This prediction is based on two assumptions: Compliance stablecoins will accelerate the replacement of traditional cross-border payment channels, saving about $40 billion in international remittance costs annually; the locked amount of stablecoins in decentralized finance protocols will exceed $500 billion.

2. Characteristics of Hong Kong's Stablecoin Regulatory Framework

The recent "Stablecoin Regulation" released by the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region government is an important step in its systematic layout in the Web 3.0 field. The regulation establishes a licensing system for stablecoin issuance, requiring issuers to obtain permission from the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and meet strict requirements for reserve asset management, redemption mechanisms, and risk control.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority plans to release operational guidelines on the tokenization of real-world assets in 2025, promoting the on-chain tokenization process of traditional assets. This will help build an innovative ecosystem that integrates traditional finance with blockchain technology, opening up broader application space for the development of Web3.0.

Although Hong Kong's "Stablecoin Regulation Draft" draws on the regulatory logic of the United States, there are significant differences in the implementation details. For example, Hong Kong allows multi-currency stablecoins, while the United States mainly focuses on USD stablecoins; Hong Kong requires 100% reserves, whereas the United States requires at least 100%; Hong Kong has stricter requirements for issuer qualifications, among others.

III. The Evolution of the Global Stablecoin Landscape under Regulatory Coordination

(1) The global reserve currency effect of the US dollar stablecoin

The "GENIUS Act" requires payment-type stablecoins to use U.S. Treasury bonds as reserve assets, which gives U.S. dollar stablecoins strategic significance beyond the realm of digital currencies. These stablecoins effectively become a new distribution channel for U.S. Treasury bonds, creating a global capital circulation system. When global users purchase U.S. dollar stablecoins, the corresponding funds are allocated as Treasury bond assets, achieving a return flow of funds to the U.S. Treasury and strengthening the global usage breadth of the U.S. dollar.

From the perspective of international settlement, stablecoins signify a paradigm shift in the US dollar clearing system. Blockchain-based stablecoins, in the form of "on-chain dollars," are directly embedded in various distributed payment systems, expanding the international use cases of the US dollar and representing a modernization upgrade of the dollar's settlement sovereignty in the digital age.

(2) Challenges of Regulatory Coordination in Asia

Although Hong Kong was the first to establish a stablecoin licensing system, Singapore simultaneously launched a "stablecoin sandbox" that allows for experimental issuance of tokens pegged to existing fiat currencies. The regulatory differences between the two regions may trigger issuers' "regulatory arbitrage" behavior, necessitating the establishment of a unified reserve audit standard and anti-money laundering information sharing mechanism through a regional financial regulatory forum.

In the long term, if coordination is lacking, this divergence may undermine regulatory fairness and policy consistency, and even trigger regional regulatory competition risks. Regulatory authorities in both regions need to strengthen policy coordination, seeking a better balance between preventing systemic risks and encouraging financial innovation, in order to enhance Asia's overall influence in global digital financial governance.

Conclusion

The joint implementation of the US GENIUS Act and the Hong Kong regulatory draft marks the transition of digital asset regulation from fragmentation to systematization. Compliance dollar stablecoins are expected to achieve a magnitude of rise in the next decade, becoming a core bridge connecting traditional finance and the crypto ecosystem. The technological evolution of public chain infrastructure will determine whether it can capture the maximized value dividends within the regulatory framework. For issuers, building a stablecoin system that is multi-chain, multi-coin, and multi-regulatory compliant will be the key strategy to win the competition of the next decade.