Analysis of the Macro Prospects of the Crypto Market in the Second Half of 2025

In the first half of 2025, the global crypto market is greatly influenced by multiple macro factors, including the U.S. government's tariff policies, the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, and geopolitical situations. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the crypto market will continue to move forward in a complex and volatile macro environment, with the following major factors continuing to play important roles:

I. The Impact of Tariff Policies on Inflation Expectations

Tariffs are an important policy tool for the U.S. government, aimed at achieving multiple economic objectives through tariff negotiations: expanding exports, increasing fiscal revenue, and enhancing the competitiveness of domestic industries. As of late July, tariff negotiations between the U.S. and major economies have made varying degrees of progress, but the third round of negotiations between China and the U.S. remains a focal point of attention.

From an economic theory perspective, tariffs belong to negative supply shocks and have a "stagflation" effect. Companies may pass the tax burden onto consumers through price transmission mechanisms, and it is expected that inflation may rise in the second half of the year in the United States, which could affect the pace of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

2. The Weak Dollar Cycle Benefits the Crypto Market

The US dollar index has clearly weakened this year, exhibiting a "weak dollar" status. This may stem from multiple factors, including the impact of tariff policies, concerns over the fiscal deficit, and the global trend of "de-dollarization".

Based on past experience, the strength of the US dollar index often dominates changes in global liquidity. If this weak dollar cycle continues until mid-2026, it will be favorable for global liquidity easing, which in turn benefits the crypto market. Historical data shows that the price of Bitcoin typically has a negative correlation with the US dollar index.

3. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains cautious

There will be four interest rate meetings in the second half of 2025. According to market expectations, the probability of a rate cut 1-2 times in the second half of the year is relatively high. The probability of maintaining the interest rate in July is as high as 95.7%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is 60.3%.

The main reasons for delaying interest rate cuts include: sustained inflationary pressure, slowing economic growth, and remaining resilience in the job market. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious stance, with the number of interest rate cuts for the year likely to be 1-2 times. However, historical data shows that there is no significant correlation between Bitcoin prices and changes in Federal Reserve interest rates.

4. Short-term Effects of Geopolitical Conflicts

The Russia-Ukraine conflict remains in a stalemate, and the prospects for a diplomatic solution are bleak. The "50-day ceasefire deadline" proposed by the United States is difficult to achieve. If a ceasefire is not reached by early September, it may trigger a new round of sanctions and market turmoil.

5. Regulatory Framework Gradually Improved

The implementation of relevant legislation in the United States marks the transition of cryptocurrency regulation from an "ambiguous" to a "transparent" era. The regulatory framework is becoming increasingly完善, which is expected to drive the expansion of the stablecoin market, with compliant projects benefiting from it.

6. "Coin-Stock Strategy" Sparks Market Enthusiasm

More and more publicly listed companies are incorporating encryption assets into their balance sheets, with reserve scales continuously expanding and showing a trend towards diversification. This integration of traditional finance and the crypto market has become a unique variable in this market cycle, but potential risks must also be monitored.

Summary

Considering various factors, the crypto market will go through multiple stages in the second half of 2025, including key milestones such as tariff negotiations, monetary policy meetings, and ceasefire deadlines. Market participants need to closely monitor changes in the macro environment and timely adjust strategies to respond to potential risks and opportunities.