The crypto market enters a systemic cycle, with Ethereum dominating the second half of the market.

Introduction

This week, the crypto market welcomes two major catalysts: the legislative offensive of Washington's "Cryptocurrency Week" and the intensive outbreak of Ethereum institutional layouts, together forming the "policy inflection point" and "capital inflection point" for the crypto industry in the second half of 2025. The deep logic of this crypto cycle is shifting from Bitcoin to Ethereum, stablecoins, and on-chain financial infrastructure. The clarification of U.S. policy and the institutional expansion of Ethereum signify that the crypto industry is entering a structurally positive phase, and the market allocation focus should gradually transition from "price games" to "rules + infrastructure's institutional dividend capture."

US "Crypto Week": Three Major Bills Signal, Compliant Assets Will Undergo Value Reassessment

In July 2025, the U.S. Congress officially launched "Crypto Currency Week," marking the first time in U.S. history that a legislative agenda has systematically promoted comprehensive governance of crypto assets. Against the backdrop of significant changes in the global digital financial landscape and the continuous challenges to traditional regulatory models, the introduction of this series of bills is not only a response to market risks but also a signal that the U.S. is trying to secure a dominant position in the next round of financial infrastructure competition.

The milestone "GENIUS Act" establishes a complete regulatory framework for stablecoins, covering key elements such as custody requirements, audit disclosures, asset reserves, and clearing processes. This means that the stablecoin system, which has long been outside the purview of traditional financial regulation, will be incorporated into the U.S. sovereign legal structure for the first time.

The "CLARITY Act" focuses on the classification of crypto assets as either securities or commodities. Its core intention is to clarify "which crypto assets are considered securities and which are not," and to delineate the regulatory boundaries of relevant regulatory agencies. If this act is successfully passed, it will put an end to the long-standing unresolved status of the "regulatory gray area" surrounding crypto assets, providing industry participants with predictable legal grounds.

The "Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act" prohibits the Federal Reserve from issuing Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) to prevent the government from establishing real-time monitoring capabilities over individual financial activities through the digital dollar framework. It sends a signal: the United States does not intend to dominate the digital financial transformation through state monopoly, but instead chooses to support a market-driven, technology-neutral, and openly interconnected encryption asset ecosystem.

The three major bills point to "regulation to promote innovation" and emphasize "clear boundaries and reduced uncertainty." Once the legislation enters the implementation phase, it will bring multiple direct impacts: compliance barriers for institutional investors will gradually be removed; the role of stablecoins as "on-chain dollars" will be confirmed by policy; compliant exchanges and custodial banks will receive policy endorsement, reshaping the trust structure of the global crypto market.

ETH Institutional Arms Race: ETF Entry, Staking Mechanism Transformation, and Asset Structure Upgrade Advancing on Three Fronts

Recently, a new round of "capital arms race" surrounding Ethereum has quietly unfolded. From financial giants continuously increasing their positions through ETF channels to more and more listed companies including ETH on their balance sheets, Ethereum is undergoing a profound restructuring of its market structure. This not only signifies that traditional capital's recognition of ETH has entered a new phase but also marks that Ethereum is accelerating its evolution towards a mainstream financial asset with institutional-level allocation logic.

According to statistics, since the launch of the ETF, the Ethereum spot ETF has attracted a net inflow of $5.76 billion, accounting for nearly 4% of its market value. This trend has明显 accelerated in the past two months, with multiple Ethereum ETF products recording over $1 billion in monthly net inflows.

At the same time, the listed company "Strategic Reserve Ethereum" has emerged. Several public market companies have announced one after another that they will include ETH in their balance sheets, marking a new narrative turning point where ETH transitions from a "speculative asset" to a "strategic reserve asset". Notably, a certain company currently holds more ETH than the Ethereum Foundation, becoming the largest single institutional holder of ETH in the world.

From the current structure of institutional participation, it can be divided into two camps: one is the "Ethereum native camp," which gathers early Ethereum ecosystem participants; the other is the "Wall Street approach," which directly replicates the Bitcoin reserve logic, utilizing leverage, financial operations, and financial report disclosures to form a capital amplification effect. This north-south encirclement-style institutional positioning model is causing the value anchor and price support system of ETH to shift towards a mainstream capital framework that is institutionalized, long-term, and structured.

The far-reaching impact of this trend is not only at the price level but also in the potential restructuring of governance, discourse power, and ecological dominance within the Ethereum network itself. In the future, if companies heavily invested in ETH continue to expand their holdings, their potential influence on the development direction of Ethereum will be significant.

It is worth noting that Ethereum currently lacks representative figures who have both a faith-based background and traditional capital appeal. The absence of endorsements from such figures has, to some extent, slowed down the trust conversion path of Ethereum in the minds of institutional investors.

However, Ethereum is not lacking in response at the institutional level. Its founders and the foundation have recently spoken out frequently, emphasizing Ethereum's technological resilience, security mechanisms, and principles of decentralization, while also beginning to strengthen the "dual-track" structure of ecological governance mechanisms, intending to embrace institutional capital while avoiding governance power being controlled by a single entity.

Market Strategy: BTC builds a high-level platform, ETH and mid-to-high quality application chains welcome a supplementary rise logic

As Bitcoin successfully breaks through the $120,000 mark and gradually enters a plateau phase, the structural rotation pattern of the crypto market becomes increasingly clear. With BTC dominating the logic, Ethereum and high-quality application chain assets are starting to welcome their own valuation recovery period.

The current market shows a typical "large-cap platform fluctuation + mid-cap rotation attack" structure, while ETH and a group of L1/L2 protocols that combine narrative and technical support have become the most valuable direction for speculation after Bitcoin.

1. BTC is entering a high-level platform construction phase: there is support downwards, but upward momentum is lacking. Bitcoin has essentially completed the major upward trend driven by the triple narrative of spot ETF, halving cycle, and institutional reserves. The current trend is entering a sideways consolidation phase. Although it is still within a technically ascending channel, the upward momentum is weakening in the short term.

2. The logic of ETH's rebound has formed: from "lost leader" to "value pit" re-evaluation. The price of ETH has broken through the previous downtrend line, beginning to establish an upward channel, and has consecutively recovered several key technical moving average levels. Combined with the capital situation and sentiment indicators, ETH has entered a new round of market sentiment switching cycle.

3. The Rise of Mid-to-High Quality Application Chains: The market is accelerating its shift towards mid-to-high quality application chain assets that are "supported by real narratives". Chains like Solana, TON, Tanssi, and Sui have rapidly attracted capital in this round of rebound due to their multiple advantages of "high performance + strong ecosystem + clear positioning".

4. Market Strategy Outlook: Focus on "Value Rotation" and "Narrative Advancement"

   • BTC allocation reserved, not the main focus
   • ETH as the core allocation target for rotation
   • High-quality public chains and modular protocols focus on
   • Narrative advancement, actively seeking new opportunities at the margins

Conclusion: Clear Regulation + ETH Main Rise, Market Enters Institutional Cycle

With the advancement of three key bills during the United States' "Crypto Week", the industry has entered a period of policy clarity. This clarity in the regulatory environment not only eliminates years of unresolved compliance uncertainties but also lays a solid foundation for the institutional and formal development of the crypto asset market. As the strategic reserve arms race accelerates for core assets like Ether, the market is gradually entering a new cycle dominated by institutional frameworks.

Ethereum, as the leader of smart contract platforms, is迎来its key window for a major upward trend. The combined push of strategic reserve tides and ETF funds marks the beginning of a reassessment of Ethereum's value in the capital market. It is foreseeable that Ethereum will maintain a long-term healthy value growth trend driven by the dual forces of on-chain application growth and capital support in the future.

This clear regulation and the synergistic effect of the revival of mainstream asset values are gradually helping the crypto market to break away from the previous "bull-bear cycle trap" and evolve towards a more stable and sustainable institutional cycle. The opening of the institutional cycle also signifies the diversification of market structures and the multidimensional upgrading of the ecosystem.

Investors should seize the institutional dividends and growth opportunities of core assets, actively invest in Ethereum and high-quality application chains, and embrace a healthier and more sustainable new era of encryption.