Crypto Market Analysis for May 2025

1. Macroeconomic Situation

In May 2025, the U.S. economy is at a crucial turning point. Inflation continues to decline, the job market remains resilient, monetary policy enters a wait-and-see period, and trade policies bring new uncertainties. Against this backdrop, the crypto market demonstrates strong resilience, and the global risk asset structure may usher in a new round of reevaluation.

inflation trend

The annual CPI in April dropped to 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021, indicating a continued easing of price pressures. The U.S. Treasury initiated a $40 billion treasury bond repurchase operation, seen as a "quasi-QE" measure aimed at releasing liquidity and refinancing at low interest rates, becoming an important force supporting the prices of risk assets.

employment market

In April, non-farm payrolls added 177,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations and reflecting the resilience of the job market. This provides a basis for the Federal Reserve to maintain a wait-and-see policy, while also easing market concerns about a recession, but it also diminishes the possibility of multiple unexpected rate cuts within the year.

monetary policy trends

The Federal Reserve has stated that it will reassess the current monetary policy framework and may abandon the "average inflation targeting" mechanism. In the future, it may extend the period of high interest rates and even increase the purchase of medium- to long-term government bonds through balance sheet expansion to control the rise in long-term rates. The policy tone will be more flexible, and there is no urgency for preemptive rate cuts in the short term.

Trade Policy and Global Economic Outlook

The announcement in early May of increased tariffs on EU goods has triggered uncertainty in the market. Regarding China-US relations, the People's Bank of China has implemented a "reserve requirement ratio cut + interest rate cut" combination policy, releasing 1 trillion yuan of liquidity, which is seen as the start of a new round of easing cycle, and market expectations for improvement in China-US relations have heated up.

2. Crypto Market Overview

trading volume analysis

As of May 27, the market's average daily trading volume was $117.4 billion, an increase of 15.8% compared to the previous period. During the two phases from May 6 to 12 and from May 21 to 22, trading volume surged significantly, with a single day trading volume once exceeding $180 billion, and the price of BTC breaking through $100,000 and $110,000, respectively.

market cap change

As of May 27, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has risen to $3.56 trillion, an increase of 17.0% compared to last month. The market share of BTC is 62.6%, while the market share of ETH is 9.6%, which represents a growth of 29.7% compared to the previous period. Since May 8, after the total market capitalization broke through $3.3 trillion, it has been steadily rising.

New Hot Token Launched

Among the popular tokens launched in May, VC-backed projects dominate, including Layer 2 projects SOPH, B2, and others. In addition, USD1 emerged as a popular narrative in May, with related projects like B, Lista, Staketone, etc., also receiving widespread attention.

3. On-chain Data Analysis

BTC, ETH ETF fund flow

In May, the net inflow of BTC ETFs was approximately $5.77 billion, and the net inflow of ETH ETFs was about $317 million. The price of BTC rose from $94,212 to $108,969, an increase of about 13.5%; ETH increased from $1,794 to $2,635, a rise of 31.9%.

stablecoin market changes

In May, the total circulation of stablecoins increased by approximately $7.28 billion, mainly driven by the growth of USDT, USDE, and DAI.

4. Mainstream cryptocurrency price analysis

BTC price trend

BTC price has broken the historical high to $111,959. Bulls are trying to maintain the price above $109,588, and the upward trend is evident. If it breaks $111,980, it could soar to $130,000. The support levels below are at the 20-day EMA( $104,886) and $100,000.

ETH price trend

ETH rebounded from the 20-day EMA on May 25 at $2,425. Bulls will attempt to break through the $2,738 resistance level again, and if successful, may aim for $3,000, encountering resistance at $2,850 along the way. Support levels below are at $2,323 and $2,111.

( SOL price trend

SOL found support at the 20-day EMA)$169### on the 20th. Bulls will attempt to break through the $188 resistance level again, and if successful, it could rise to $210 or even $220. Support below is at the 50-day SMA($151).

5. Hot Events of This Month

( USD1 ecological development

The market value of the USD1 stablecoin has surpassed 2.1 billion USD, making it the seventh-largest stablecoin. Its main advantage lies in the fact that it is issued by WLFI, led by the Trump family, making it the first stablecoin project to have presidential endorsement. The prices of several tokens related to USD1 partners have surged significantly, driving the popularity of the "WLFI+USD1" concept.

![BitMart VIP Insights | May crypto market analysis])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-6a6780fc7ff4947dbd31cb50b03c3486.webp###

( The rise of the Believe platform

The core token of the Believe platform, Launchcoin, once had a market value close to $310 million. The platform focuses on the concept of "social assetization," allowing users to issue tokens through the X platform. However, the platform's popularity heavily relies on the performance of Launchcoin, posing sustainability risks.

6. Outlook for Next Month

) progress of the stablecoin bill

The "GENIUS Act" has entered the revision process and is expected to complete legislation by Q4 2024. The Act aims to regulate stablecoin issuance, reserve requirements, compliance obligations, and more, and is expected to promote greater market recognition for compliant stablecoin projects.

Ethereum ETF pledge approval

The US SEC has postponed its decision on the Ethereum Trust ETF to June 1st. Hong Kong has approved staking for Ethereum ETFs, and the market expects US regulators to reach a regulatory framework for the relevant mechanisms soon. Once realized, it could drive a new wave of market enthusiasm for Ethereum and related assets such as Lido and Eigen.

![BitMart VIP Insights | May Crypto Market Analysis]###https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-cb0bece5fd397321ce37ae6b96c60e7a.webp###