Digital assets demonstrate resilience in turbulent times

In June 2025, the global financial markets are undergoing an unprecedented stress test. The destruction of numerous nuclear bombers by Ukrainian drones has raised concerns about nuclear proliferation, the China-US trade friction has heated up again, and the situation in the Middle East is tense. Amidst this complex scenario, the price of traditional safe-haven asset gold is nearing a historical high of $3,450 per ounce, while Bitcoin is exhibiting surprising stability around the $105,000 mark. This performance, which is "decoupled" from geopolitical risks, reflects profound changes in the underlying logic of the cryptocurrency market.

1. The Weakening of the Transmission Mechanism of Geopolitical Conflict Effects

1. The "buffer effect" of conflict impact

After a military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities by a certain country on June 13, Bitcoin quickly stabilized after a 2% drop within 2 hours, which stands in stark contrast to the 10% single-day plunge during the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022. The improvement in resilience is due to a qualitative change in market structure: data shows that the proportion of long-term holders will exceed 70% by 2025, while the proportion of speculative chips has dropped to a five-year low. Institutional investors have effectively mitigated the short-term impact of unexpected events through a hedging system established in the derivatives market.

2. Redefining Risk Hedging Logic

The "digital gold" attribute of Bitcoin is being reinterpreted. With expectations of a possible interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the negative correlation (-0.72) between Bitcoin and the real yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries has significantly strengthened, making it closer to a "liquidity hedge tool" rather than merely a safe-haven asset. On June 1, when a cold auction for U.S. Treasuries caused real interest rates to surge, Bitcoin's inverse rise validated this new characteristic.

3. Geopolitical risk's "targeted absorption"

The energy supply chain crisis triggered by the Middle East conflict has objectively accelerated the process of de-dollarization. The proportion of Iran's oil exports settled in Bitcoin has exceeded 15%, and this penetration into the real economy has partially transformed geopolitical risks into rigid demand for Bitcoin. Blockchain analysis shows that the on-chain transaction volume of wallet addresses in conflict areas surged by 300% after the incident.

2. The Complex Game of Macroeconomic Cycles

1. The certainty dividend of the shift in monetary policy

The market's expectation probability for interest rate cuts in the third quarter has reached 68%, which is directly reflected in the steepening of the Bitcoin term structure: the annualized premium of the June 15 futures contract has risen to 23%, a new high since the 2024 halving. Historical data shows that in the three months leading up to the start of a rate cut cycle, Bitcoin's average increase reaches 37%, far exceeding gold's 12%.

2. Structural relief from inflationary pressures

In May, the core PCE price index fell to 2.8% year-on-year, and the supply chain pressure index returned to pre-pandemic levels. This weakened Bitcoin's anti-inflation narrative but unexpectedly released its "growth-sensitive asset" attributes. The latest financial report from a large technology company shows that the accounting treatment for Bitcoin held by the company has shifted from "intangible asset" to "strategic reserve," marking the beginning of institutions incorporating it into the growth stock valuation framework.

3. The arbitrage space created by the divergence of China-US policies

The People's Bank of China has consecutively increased its gold reserves to 30,000 ounces over the past 6 months, while the US Treasury has driven the dollar index down by 12% this year through a "controlled depreciation" strategy. This contradictory monetary policy has given rise to a gray channel for cross-border capital to arbitrage through Bitcoin. Data shows that the over-the-counter trading volume of Bitcoin in the China-US trade corridor grew by 470% during the tariff dispute.

3. Deep Structural Changes in the Market

1. The "de-leveraging" of the position structure

In the 2025 futures open interest, the proportion of hedging positions has surpassed 60% for the first time, and the funding rate of perpetual contracts has remained stable below 0.01% per day. This change means the market no longer relies on leveraged funds to drive it, and the "long and short double explosion" phenomenon commonly seen in 2021 has basically disappeared. The management scale of a large asset management company's Bitcoin ETF has exceeded $130 billion, and its daily net subscription volume shows a significant negative correlation with the S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX).

2. "Layered Reinforcement" of Liquidity Structure

A certain trading platform's institutional custody account balance has surpassed 4 million bitcoins, accounting for about 21% of the circulating supply. This type of "cold storage" chip forms a natural price stabilizer, making it difficult for short-term selling pressure to breach key support levels. When the missile attack in Iran on June 14 triggered panic selling, over $3 billion in buying pressure emerged at the $100,000 mark, with 90% coming from institutional over-the-counter trading desks.

3. The "traditional integration" of valuation systems

The 90-day correlation of Bitcoin with the Nasdaq 100 index dropped from 0.85 in 2021 to 0.32, while the correlation with the Russell 2000 small-cap stocks rose to 0.61. This shift reflects that the market is reconstructing valuation logic using traditional asset pricing models: the volatility of Bitcoin (annualized at 45%) is now close to that of tech growth stocks, significantly lower than the 128% seen in 2021.

4. Short-term Price Analysis

Bitcoin found support on Friday at the 50-day simple moving average ($103,604), but bulls struggled to push the price above the 20-day exponential moving average ($106,028). This indicates a lack of buying interest at higher levels.

According to the daily chart, the 20-day moving average is flattening, and the relative strength index (RSI) is around the midpoint, which does not give a clear advantage to either the bulls or the bears. If buyers push the price above the 20-day moving average, Bitcoin may rise to the range of $110,530 to $111,980. Sellers are expected to firmly defend this upper area, but if the bulls take control, the price could soar to $130,000.

On the downside, breaking below the 50-day moving average may challenge the key psychological level of $100,000. If this level is breached, the price could fall to $93,000.

On the 4-hour chart, sellers are trying to prevent the price from rebounding at the 20-day moving average. If the price drops significantly and falls below $104,000, the short-term advantage will shift to the bears. Bitcoin may drop to $102,664 and then to $100,000. Buyers are expected to firmly defend the $100,000 level.

Bulls must push the price above the 50-day moving average to gain control. After that, the price may soar to $110,530.

V. Future Path Projection

1. June to August: Period of consolidation and accumulation

The Federal Reserve's policy vacuum may cause Bitcoin to fluctuate in the range of $98,000 to $112,000. The key observation point is whether the July FOMC meeting will release a clear signal for interest rate cuts. Technically, the 200-day moving average (currently at $96,500) will provide strong support. The pulse-like impact of geopolitical conflicts still exists, but market depth indicators show that the amount of capital required for a 1% price fluctuation has increased to three times that of 2022.

2. 9-11 months: Main upward trend starts

Historical seasonal patterns show that the average increase in October reaches 21.89%. Coupled with the Federal Reserve's potential first rate cut, Bitcoin may embark on a journey to challenge $150,000. At that time, the peak of maturing U.S. debt ($6.5 trillion) may force the Federal Reserve to expand its balance sheet, and the secondary release of U.S. dollar liquidity will become the best catalyst. The options market has seen a large accumulation of call options expiring in December with a strike price of $140,000.

3. Risk Warning

Regulatory actions against stablecoin issuers may trigger short-term volatility, but in the long run, the normalization of spot ETF approvals will attract over $200 billion of traditional asset management funds into the market. Investors should be wary of the "Christmas pullback" after the highs in November, as historical data shows that the average drawdown during this phase in a bull market cycle reaches 18%.

Conclusion: The Position of Bitcoin in the New Currency Order

As gold is about to break through $3500, the U.S. Treasury yield curve continues to invert, and the proportion of cross-border settlements in RMB surpasses that of the dollar, we are witnessing the most profound monetary revolution since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. Bitcoin plays a dual role in this transformation: it is both a beneficiary of the collapse of the old system's credit and a builder of the infrastructure for the new order. Its price stability no longer stems from a reduction in volatility, but from the reconstruction of underlying value support - evolving from a speculative symbol to a liquidity bridge connecting the real economy. In the long winter of reconstructing fiat currency order, Bitcoin is proving itself to be the most resilient of the new forces.