Crypto Market Turmoil: Geopolitical Situation Affects Bitcoin, Ethereum Encounters Large Buy the Dip

Market Observation

Recent risk events have occurred frequently in the global financial markets, with geopolitical tensions continuing to rise. Israel has launched airstrikes on multiple targets within Iran, leading to a sharp increase in international risk aversion, with gold and oil prices soaring. Meanwhile, an Indian airline passenger plane has crashed, resulting in a significant number of casualties. The domestic situation in the United States is also tumultuous, with ongoing riots in Los Angeles, and some areas have been forced to impose curfews. In terms of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve has maintained a high interest rate stance since December of last year, with market expectations that interest rate cuts may begin in September this year.

In this complex macro environment, analysis points out that in the first half of 2025, the global crypto asset market will undergo a key transition from being driven by retail investors to being dominated by institutions. Bitcoin reached an annual high of 110,000 US dollars in May, and the continuous influx of institutional funds is driving the transformation of crypto assets from speculative products to asset allocation tools. Crypto concept stocks have performed strongly, with several related securities recording significant gains.

However, affected by the situation in the Middle East, the Bitcoin market experienced a significant correction this morning, falling below the $103,000 mark. Some analysts believe that cryptocurrency movements are in line with major risk assets, and Bitcoin is expected to find technical support around $101,000, but short-term price trends will be mainly influenced by geopolitical situations. As for Ethereum, although the price has fallen below $2,500, down 9.2% in 24 hours, institutional investors are still actively positioning themselves. Notably, one address purchased 2,825 ETH again this morning, and this address has accumulated a total of 160,736 ETH (worth $421 million) over the past two weeks. Another investor, after today's market decline, used 127 million USDC to buy 48,800 ETH within 6 hours.

According to a report from a certain analysis team, if the ETH price falls below $2320, it may test the range between $2000 and $1800, but it is more likely to continue rising in the short term. If ETH breaks through $2793, it could trigger a new round of increases, with a target price potentially reaching $4000; even with a short-term pullback, it is expected to break through $3000 in July or August, with a year-end target remaining at $4000.

Key Data (as of June 13, 12:00 HKT)

• Bitcoin: $104,417 (Year-to-date +11.54%), Daily spot trading volume $47.667 billion
• Ethereum: $2,511.08 (Year-to-date -24.64%), daily spot trading volume is $38.332 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 54 (Neutral)
• Average GAS: BTC: 3.52 sat/vB ETH: 3.28 Gwei
• Market share: BTC 63.9%, ETH 9.3%
• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 0.9019
• Sector performance: The crypto market has suffered a heavy blow, with AI down 11.6%; Meme down 11.9%.
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 246,510 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $1.14 billion, including $444 million in BTC liquidations, $290 million in ETH liquidations, and $51.9423 million in SOL liquidations.

ETF Flows (as of June 12)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$86.31 million (net inflow for 4 consecutive days)
• Ethereum ETF: +112 million (net inflow for 19 consecutive days)

Today's Outlook

• The 23rd phase of TGE for a certain trading platform wallet will launch SGC.
• A certain platform will launch FARTCOIN, SQD, and CAKE
• A certain platform's institutional business will enable 24/7 trading of XRP and SOL futures for US traders starting from June 13.
• Solsniper will close its NFT trading market before 3 PM on June 14.
• Immutable (IMX) will unlock approximately 24.52 million tokens on June 13 at 8 AM.
• Cookie DAO (COOKIE) will unlock approximately 13.88 million tokens at 8 AM on June 13.
• Starknet (STRK) will unlock approximately 127 million tokens on June 15 at 8 AM.
• Onyxcoin (XCN) will unlock approximately 296 million tokens on June 15 at 8 AM.

Top 500 market cap gains today: Venom (VENOM) up 28.04%, NEXPACE (NXPC) up 15.89%, Orbs (ORBS) up 13.00%, Aerodrome Finance (AERO) up 12.80%, WhiteRock (WHITE) up 11.57%.

Hot News

• Anthony Pompliano is set to lead the publicly listed company ProCapBTC in a proposed financing of $750 million to purchase Bitcoin.
• Canadian listed company Tony G Co-Investment Holdings purchased approximately $440,000 worth of HYPE tokens.
• 188,000 SOL redeemed from staking by FTX/Alameda in the early morning was distributed to 30 addresses.
• Israel launched airstrikes on Iran, and the Defense Minister announced a nationwide state of emergency.
• In the past 24 hours, the crypto market experienced a total liquidation of $1.017 billion in contracts, mainly affecting long positions.
• The U.S. Senate will hold a final vote on the stablecoin GENIUS Act on June 17.
• Report: 74% of family offices have allocated or are considering allocating digital assets
• The US SEC has postponed its decision on the approval of spot ETFs for Dogecoin, Hedera, and Avalanche.
• DeFi Development secured a $5 billion equity credit line to increase its holdings in Solana
• A large asset management company has incorporated crypto assets into its core strategic vision for 2030.
• DTCC is considering issuing stablecoins to promote the settlement of digital assets
• Trident plans to raise $500 million to establish an enterprise XRP treasury and appoint strategic advisors.
• The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending June 7 is 248,000.
• A trading platform has launched the 22nd phase of the HODLer airdrop project DeFi App (HOME)
• Ant Group will apply for a stablecoin license in Hong Kong and Singapore.
• Yicai: The virtual coin LABUBU is not officially issued by Pop Mart, and warns to be cautious of the risks of trading coins.