Sui (SUI) price prediction: A big dump of nearly 5% in a single day underperforming the market, $162 million Token unlock triggers an alts flight to safety.

On August 5, the price of Sui (SUI) experienced a single-day plunge of 4.71%, dropping from a high of $3.61 to $3.39, with the decline far exceeding that of mainstream crypto assets. This big dump coincided with the largest token unlock in the project's history ($162 million), coupled with Bitcoin's dominance rising to 61.4%, highlighting a sharp shift in market risk appetite. Despite the on-chain TVL remaining stable at $2 billion and receiving institutional endorsement, the macro pressure has revealed the weakness of alts.

Panic selling erupts: SUI's single-day fall exceeds the market by more than three times On-chain data shows that the SUI Token experienced a massive sell-off on August 5, falling by 4.71% during the day, with an intraday low of $3.39. Its decline significantly exceeded the overall fall in the Crypto Assets market (1.57%), and was much greater than mainstream alts like Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) (declines < 3%). The price volatility stands in stark contrast to the Bitcoin dominance index (BTC.D) breaking through 61.4%, revealing that funds are rapidly withdrawing from small to mid-cap Tokens.

$162 million massive unlock becomes the fuse, open interest moves in advance The current selling pressure began with the largest Token unlock event in SUI's history on August 1, when $162 million worth of SUI entered the circulating market. It is noteworthy that as early as late July, SUI futures open interest had plummeted by 15%, indicating that sharp traders were withdrawing in advance. Coupled with macroeconomic headwinds and capital outflows from the alts sector, SUI’s decline for the month expanded to 20%, with a market capitalization evaporation of approximately $3 billion.

Bitcoin siphon effect intensifies, on-chain fundamentals struggle against macro pressure The current market shows clear characteristics of risk aversion:

• Bitcoin's 24-hour trading volume increased by 8.2% against the trend.
• The overall trading volume of alts shrank (SUI trading volume fell by 6.8% to $1.15 billion)
• Geopolitical risks + strong U.S. economic data drive funds into high liquidity assets

Despite the strong fundamentals on the SUI blockchain (with TVL remaining steady at $2 billion and frequent institutional activity), it is difficult to resist systemic risks: ▶︎ AMINA Bank became the first regulated entity to provide SUI compliant custody services on August 5. ▶︎ Mill City Ventures announced the establishment of a $450 million SUI asset pool.

Market Outlook: When Will the Altcoin Season Restart? The big dump of SUI reflects the core contradiction in current altcoin investments: the decoupling of quality fundamentals from market sentiment dominated by macro narratives. Against the backdrop of Bitcoin continuously absorbing liquidity, investors should be aware of three major risk factors:

1. The liquidity tightening expectations triggered by the September Federal Reserve interest rate decision
2. Continuous release of unlock selling pressure in the Token economic model
3. The siphon effect after the Bitcoin dominance index breaks through the key resistance level

[Conclusion] The recent deep pullback of Sui is not only a reactive response to specific project unlocking events but also a microcosm of the restructuring of risk in the crypto market. When Bitcoin regains pricing power, even altcoins with $2 billion TVL support and institutional backing find it difficult to remain unaffected. In the short term, altcoin investors should closely monitor three key indicators: Bitcoin ETF fund flows, the US stock market volatility index (VIX), and token unlocking calendars, while patiently waiting for a recovery in market risk appetite. In the medium to long term, it is essential to return to the progress of the project ecosystem; Sui's innovation in the DeFi derivatives market and the pace of institutional adoption remain crucial observation dimensions.