Macroeconomic gloom envelops the crypto market! Bitcoin has fallen below 118,000, as institutional selling pressure intensifies ahead of the Fed's decision and the implementation of tariffs.

On July 31, Bitcoin ( BTC ) fell by 0.45% to $118,446.5, while Ether ( ETH ) led the mainstream altcoins with a sharp decline of over 2%. The market is seeing increased risk aversion ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision and the implementation of high tariffs in the U.S. on August 1. Despite Strategy's massive investment of $2.5 billion to increase holdings of 21,021 BTC, it has not been able to reverse the selling pressure caused by profit-taking and macro uncertainty. The tightening volatility indicators suggest a possible directional breakout after the key events unfold.

Bitcoin Faces Key Resistance, Institutional Large Investments Struggle Against Profit-Taking Bitcoin continues its recent consolidation trend, failing to stabilize above the key psychological resistance level of $120,000:

• Price Performance: A fall of 0.45% to close at $118,446.5, continuing the pullback trend from the $120,000 mark.
• Core Pressure: Long-term holders and institutions are taking profits near resistance levels, coupled with a decrease in risk appetite ahead of macro events.
• Abnormal Signal: Asset management giant Strategy invested $2.5 billion to purchase 21,021 BTC in the largest single-day increase in history, yet it failed to boost the coin price, reflecting the market's weak buying momentum and dominance of risk aversion sentiment.

Dual Macro Sword Hanging High: Fed Interest Rate Decision + US Tariff Impact Market cautious sentiment mainly stems from two major events:

1. Fed July Policy Meeting:
   • It is widely expected that the interest rate will remain unchanged (current range 4.25%-4.5%), with the focus on whether the policy statement and Powell's speech will signal a rate cut path. Former President Trump pressures to cut interest rates while signs of economic cooling coexist, exacerbating policy uncertainty.
2. US Tariff Policy Implementation (Effective August 1):
   • A 15%-50% tiered tariff on goods from multiple countries is about to be implemented.
   • Although it does not directly affect the cryptocurrency market, it may impact the global supply chain and raise inflation expectations, exacerbating the volatility of risk assets.

• Additional Variables: The market is waiting for the White House to release a report or disclose the U.S. government's Bitcoin holdings and strategic reserve plan position.

alts fall, Ethereum leads with a drop of over 2% Bitcoin's pullback triggers a widespread decline in the crypto market, with over 80% of the top 100 tokens by market cap closing in the red:

• Ethereum(ETH): fell 2.1% to $3,781.5, leading the decline among mainstream coins.
• Performance of Other Mainstream Coins:
  • XRP: fell 0.6% to $3.1290
  • Solana (SOL): fall 2.1%
  • Cardano (ADA): fall 1.6%
  • Dogecoin (DOGE): fall 2.2%
  • TRUMP: fall 2.6%

Volatility brewing for a change, waiting for the event to clarify The current market shows typical characteristics of "event-driven wait and see."

• Volatility Contraction: The implied volatility ( IV ) index of major cryptocurrencies continues to tighten, indicating a potential sharp one-sided market after significant events.
• Analyst Warning: The Fed's policy tone (hawkish/dovish) and the assessment of the actual impact of tariffs will provide the urgently needed macro directional guidance for the crypto market.

Conclusion: Bitcoin and alts collectively corrected before key macro events, highlighting the market's sensitivity to policy uncertainty. The epic bottom-fishing by Strategy failed to reverse the downward trend, further confirming the current overwhelming dominance of risk aversion in the market. The Fed's interest rate decision stance and the actual impact of U.S. tariff policies will be the core catalysts to break the current deadlock. If risk appetite recovers after events become clearer, Bitcoin may attempt to retest the $120,000 level; if the policy tone leans hawkish or tariffs trigger a chain reaction, then caution is needed for a pullback towards $115,000 (50-day EMA). Investors should closely monitor the Fed's statement wording, White House Bitcoin holdings report, and market reactions post-tariff implementation.